(0:00 - 0:39) In recent months, several European Union countries have dramatically increased military spending and have clearly signaled their intention to go to war with Russia. Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have so far failed to produce results, and Vladimir Putin has openly stated that if Russia is attacked by NATO countries, Russia may respond with nukes. Meanwhile, China has been increasing their military spending in recent years and now has 17 naval shipyards compared to the U.S.'s five. (0:40 - 2:22) Is World War III brewing over the Ukraine conflict? And if so, why would the powers involved allow that to happen, especially knowing that it could devolve into a nuclear exchange? Many people think that economists only study the flow of money, but in actual fact their expertise goes well beyond that. Economists study societies, resources, politics, and trade largely in an effort to not only understand what is happening, but what is going to happen. One of the most successful in this area is Martin Armstrong, who founded Armstrong Economics decades ago created the economic confidence model, which has accurately predicted many crises over the years. Martin joins me today for part one of this two-part interview and explains what's really happening in Europe, Russia, and China, dispels the myths and misinformation being pushed by mainstream media, and in the process reveals the true motivations of these powers and those who lead them, all of which leads to one inescapable conclusion. War in Europe and Asia is coming, is in fact very likely inevitable, and that war will have consequences for those involved and for the entire world, including us here in Canada, that will last for decades. Martin, welcome to the show. (2:23 - 3:16) Well, thank you for inviting me. And I was very pleased that I ran into you at the Cornerstone Forum in Alberta this past weekend, was able to invite you, and you've very graciously given up an hour of your time, because there is, yes, so much happening in the world right now. And as an economist, you specialize in not only analyzing what's happening, but also predicting from that. You created your model years ago, which has been extremely successful in predicting things that were going to happen. So while I want to get to your views on Canada a little later in the interview, where I'd like to start is with the situation really revolving around the Ukraine, which includes, of course, the European debt crisis, what Putin wants, what Zelensky wants, and you've analyzed all of this in depth. So if you would please give us your opinions on what's really happening there, what's driving it, and what is likely to happen. (3:20 - 5:32) Well, the truth about it is that you really have a lot of propaganda. And actually, Churchill, I think he said, truth is so precious in time of war that it needs to be protected by a bodyguard of lies. And nothing really has changed, really. The truth is that they have used Ukraine as the vanguard. And this has always been, a group of neocons have always been against Russia. I mean, you even have Robert McNamara, who took us into Vietnam before he died. He wrote a book, and also you can see him on YouTube. He apologized and said that they took us into Vietnam because they thought Russia was involved. And he says, we were wrong. It was just a civil war. I mean, this has been going on. I think even Ron Paul said they've been waging these endless wars and haven't won a single one. And I know some of these people we call neocons. I knew Bill Kristol even spoke at one of our conferences back in the 90s. And it's hard to fathom, but I think that some of these people, like John Bolton, I mean, he'd invade Canada to get to the Russians. I think they were psychologically damaged during the 50s or something when we all had to hide underneath our desks. But Russia is, they think this is going to be the third time is the charm. Russia is actually the richest country in the world from a natural resource perspective. (5:33 - 6:44) They have virtually everything, gold, diamonds, oil, timber. And NATO, I have the declassified documents from the Clinton administration. Russia was invited to join NATO. And Gorbachev was actually thinking about it. And then they staged a coup against him. And that's when Yeltsin stood on the tank in Moscow and told them not to shoot at their own people. And the coup failed because the army didn't do it. And NATO should have been shut down after that, really. It has no purpose. I mean, I've seen the internal memos. They were afraid of all the money going to climate change. And they actually were saying, how do we remain relevant? And the only way they remain relevant and people keep sending their money to them is by saying Russia wants to invade Europe. (6:45 - 12:33) Now, that was plausible when they were communists. And it wasn't for economic reasons, because Europe has nothing. It doesn't have energy. You're not talking about gold, timber. They have to get beef from other places because they don't have the land to grow cattle. That's why veal was popular in Europe. So that was the days of Khrushchev. We will bury you. It was more like an economic religion that communism is going to defeat capitalism. And Europe has nothing to warrant Russia to invade. All right. What are you going to get? Nothing but conflicts. And the French basically will say, we're going to pay our pensions now. But with the shoe in the other foot, that's different. You had Hitler tried to take it. Napoleon tried to take it because of its wealth. Most people don't realize, and they probably should make a movie of it. But in 1917, Russia had the world's largest gold reserves. And whoever was in charge hid it. So the Bolsheviks didn't get it. And nobody's ever found it yet. And rumors were they buried it in a forest or they dropped it to the bottom of one of their deep lakes. But people have been searching for it, like the Knights Templar quest. And nobody's ever found it. Now, the criticism that Putin gets from inside Russia is that he should have went into Ukraine like we went into Iraq. Shock and awe would have been over in three or four weeks done. Instead, he didn't want to do that. He went in just to protect the Donbass, which are all Russians. Crimea, about 15% of the population are still Mongols from the invasion of 1240. And most people don't realize that Khrushchev grew up there. His successor Brezhnev was born in the Donbass. So right up to Kiev, in fact, Khrushchev was in charge of rebuilding it after World War II. I mean, this was all part of the Russian czar, the empire, long before USSR stuff. So you have this. I mean, Trump said peace is difficult because both sides hate each other. We had an employee in Kiev and one in Donetsk. They would never talk to each other. We had a conference in Greece. The one from Kiev refused to go fly back the quickest way, which was a stopover in Moscow. She went every which way. So I'm very familiar with that region. I've been there, spoken to them. If I can just jump in for a second, because there's something here that you've said that's really important. And I want to clarify this and make sure that I and the viewers are understanding. Because as you say, there's all this misinformation about what are the motivations for this. And Putin has been compared to Hitler, and he's going to go and try to take over all of Europe. But from what you've just told me, because I know some history myself, when Hitler took Austria and he started attacking Czechoslovakia, his excuse was that he was repatriating Germans in that area. Well, that was just an excuse to start a war. But what you're telling me is that Putin's the exact opposite. When he wants to take these regions in Ukraine, he really is repatriating Russians. And he's got no interest in going beyond that. That's all he wants. Okay, that's very important. And what's more important is that they demonize Putin so much that it's ridiculous. He is probably not just the smartest world leader over there, but also the most restrained. The criticism he gets is, you know, he should have done the shock and awe thing. And all these people say, oh, we'll remove Putin. If you remove Putin, we got a real problem. Because the neocons, they also have behind their scenes. And they hate the West just as much as ours hate the Russians, you know. Putin is in between. He was appointed by Yeltsin, because Yeltsin was being attacked by, you know, the bankers and the CIA with Bank of New York. You know, they got him to take $7 billion from the IMF loans and wire it to Geneva, and then immediately started this investigation going after Bank of New York, and all led to Yeltsin. So he was getting it from that side. And then the old hardliners who wanted to take it back to the USSR filed a motion for impeachment against them. So he was getting attacked from both sides. (12:33 - 12:54) That's why he turned to Putin. Putin wasn't an oligarch, and he wasn't a communist. So he was like middle of the ground. And he said his last words to Putin was protect Russia. And that's basically what he has done. All this nonsense, oh, he wants to take Europe. (12:54 - 13:02) Look, he's been there for 25 years. I think he would have done something a lot sooner than this. And he's always that poor. (13:02 - 13:20) As you point out, it's extremely important to understand, Europe doesn't have anything that he wants. There would just be a burden on them. Why in the world would Russia want Europe? Yeah, if you look at history, Japan, why did it invade Manchuria? Because they had no resources. (13:20 - 15:58) Manchuria had everything. Okay, they had the oil, etc. You know, and Japan was buying energy from the United States by ship. You know, so that's why they invaded China. So you have to have some sort of an incentive to do that throughout history. You know, the other side is more or less the empire building conquest. So like Alexander the Great or something like that. But still, he had a lot of incentive to do so. Persia was a vast wealth. You know, he had so much gold and silver, more than anybody in the world. So there was all still an economic, you know, attitude towards it. And so Alexander the Great actually created, you know, really the first world monetary system. But, you know, there's nothing there for Europe. It would be extremely, you know, burdensome. It would suck all the life out of Russia. And so, you know, this is nothing more than, you know, NATO propaganda to constantly remain relevant. And if there's peace with Russia, why do you need NATO? The Warsaw Pact fell. So, you know, and I wrote a book, The Plot to Seize Russia. And right on page three, I put in all the declassified documents from the Clinton administration. Russia was invited to join NATO. The coup was because the old hardliners saw that as a capitulation, you know, and a loss. So they staged a coup. But in theory, they were looking at bringing in NATO, and then that would then be right up against the border of China. It would be the next one in line. But, you know, you can also look on YouTube, and I suggest General Wesley Clark. In 2007, he gave a speech and it's still on YouTube. And after 9-11, he went to the Pentagon, and he was told they were going into Iraq. (15:59 - 17:18) And he said, oh, you've tied Iraq-Sodom to 9-11. They said no. And he then in his speech says, he goes back, and they intended to go into Iraq, Iran, seven, you know, former satellites of Russia, and conquer them all. Right, you know, point blank, he said, since when is the military for conquest rather than defense? So this was all in his speech. I mean, so, you know, like I said, I know some of these people, I've been to dinner with them, and there's no logical reason for this hatred, but it's just systemic. Maybe we got to get through this generation to get rid of them. I don't really know. And even in Ukraine, they're just taught that they hate Russians. And I even tried having an intelligent conversation, I said, do you realize that, first of all, Stalin was not a Russian, he was from Georgia. (17:19 - 21:00) Second of all, his right-hand man who took all the food from Ukraine was from Kiev. He was Ukrainian. He wasn't a Russian. And most scholars think, because the Ukrainians had persecuted the Jews, that his right-hand man, Kay Ganovich, was Jewish. And so he took the food from Ukraine under many beliefs that it was for retribution for what they did to the Jews. But, you know, they're still taught it's Russia, Russia, Russia, you know, and so it's that whole region is just ethnic hatreds that go back centuries. I mean, Greece and Turkey hate each other, goes back to Alexander the Great. You know, Bismarck, basically, when he said in 1888, he said, a major European war is going to come, and it's going to come from the Balkans. 1914, he was correct. You know, you have just a mixture of three religions there, because the Ottoman Empire had conquered the area, so you have some Islam, then you have some Christianity, and then you have Orthodox Christianity. And that seems to, you know, be the dividing lines. I mean, the real solution, really, to Ukraine is the same solution of Yugoslavia. It broke up, okay, and it broke up according to ethnic lines. Even Czechoslovakia broke up into Czech and Slovak, right? There are just ethnic differences there. I mean, I've been in Greece when Merkel was objecting to giving any money to the Greek banks, and they're protesting, dressed in Nazi uniforms. So we don't tend to have that here so much in North America. There was a documentary that I did watch of FDR, and U.S. was isolationist, could not get Congress to issue a declaration of war to get into World War II. It took Pearl Harbor to do that. But I was watching one of his speeches. He went to Boston, trying to get us into war. And, of course, Boston is mostly Irish. They said, you really expect us to send our boys over there to defend the Brits after what they did to us? So most of the people that came to America was largely to get away from all that, and they didn't want to go back. So, you know, this is pretty much the problem, and I don't see, honestly, any resolution, because the hatred is just there, you know, and it's been there for centuries. As I understand it, and I believe you've written on this, the European Union is essentially broke. (21:01 - 23:32) They're very bad off financially, and they're looking at Russia and saying, well, if we go conquer Russia, we can mask all of that, and we can take their resources. And so, yeah, I mean, you're really putting a new perspective on this for a lot of people, Martin, where we're seeing that, you know, you're telling us Putin is not the dictatorial conqueror that people are painting him as. He's a moderate. He's just trying to take back those areas of Ukraine that are almost entirely Russian, and that's all he wants. But what you've got on the other side now is you've got largely NATO countries who are seeing Russia as a solution to their financial problems, and they are gearing up for war. I mean, the spending on defense has gone through the roof in many countries there just in the past few months. And they're drafting people, our staff in Germany, so people that are even 60 years old have been told to report. And I was called in to create the Euro. So I met with them, and I said, okay, fine, this is how we create a currency. And at the time, Hermann Kohl was the chancellor of Germany. So the German people were never allowed to vote to join the euro. He admitted before he died, he acted like a dictator, and he said if he allowed them to vote, he would have lost seven to three. So he took Germany in, and essentially what it was, he said he knew that they would object to taking on the debts of Greece and Italy, etc. So he said no consolidation of the debt. And I warned them. I said, this is not going to work. It's just going to blow up, and you're going to move the volatility from the currency to the bond markets. So everything they said to sell the European Union was a lie. Oh, we'll all be paying the same interest rates, only if you consolidate the debt. And I mean, you could look at the United States. We have a single currency, fine, single interest rate for the feds, but then you have 50 states, same currency, but they all pay different rates according to their credit rating. (23:34 - 24:02) And I said, that's what's going to happen in Europe, and that is exactly what has happened. And now the problem is that they went crazy with the COVID, then they went crazy with the whole climate change, and then they put sanctions on Russia. Like Japan, Germany has no natural resources. (24:02 - 24:19) Merkel even shut down nuclear energy. So basically, Germany, which is the cornerstone of the EU economy, it's 25%. It is shrinking. (24:19 - 24:37) I'm not talking about a recession. I'm talking about the number of actual businesses is declining. We saw huge protests of workers over Volkswagen, because they're phasing out gasoline cars. (24:39 - 27:10) But the economy has actually shrunk at least 3%, maybe up to 5%. So a number of small businesses have declined. So it's shrinking. And then you allowed all these migrants in. That's a recipe for absolute disaster. Even in the United States, after Andrew Jackson shut down the Bank of the United States and shifted to this, you ended up with the hard times of the 1840s. You had all these states going bankrupt, because they were trying to protect their banks, and it didn't work out. That's when the Irish were coming over. And so you can look it up. In the 1840s, there was migrant basic crisis to the point that there were gun battles on the streets of Philadelphia. And to this day, an Irish name is hooligan, and it became, oh, he's just a hooligan. In other words, somebody that's a troublemaker. So all of this stems from that period. And when you're in an economic decline and jobs are in shortage, you do not allow migration at the same time, because then those people are perceived to be taking the jobs from native people. And that's where you get this crisis. And this is what's happening in Europe. And it's a very bad recipe for civil unrest. And Europe is, they promised that everybody would have the same interest rate. Lie. Didn't work out. Then they said, don't worry about, you can join. It won't be a dictatorship because nothing will happen unless it's a full consensus. Hungary objects. So what do they do? Well, we're changing that rule and stripping. (27:11 - 27:26) Little by little, whatever the idea of the EU was, it's just gone. And I do podcasts everywhere in Europe, from Italy and Croatia and even Serbia and stuff. And. (27:27 - 28:18) I would say three years ago, it would say, you really think the EU is going to break up? I said, yes. And now it's like, when do you think it will break up? It's not if anymore. People just fed up with it. And you're seeing some countries basically demanding to export migrants and stuff like that, where the EU is saying no. And this, I think, brings up a very important question, Martin, because there is this perception. I don't know if it's correct or not. You can tell us that the EU was really a model for a one world government, that this was what they wanted to do with it. But if that's the case, and of course, we've had these globalist forces now for years, wanting to bring about a one world government. But if that was their model and it's collapsing. (28:20 - 29:07) There probably are some sound economic reasons why it's collapsing. And therefore, we would be able to say, well, if they ever did succeed in creating this one world government, it's going collapse too. Yes. I think the Federal Reserve is a good example. When it was created, it was actually a brilliant design. In 1913, the way it would stimulate the economy, the term lender of last resort meant. It didn't buy government debt. It was to buy corporate. So let's say a corporation, the banks were tight. They wouldn't lend. So they would issue a 90-day paper and the Federal Reserve would buy it. That way, they didn't have to lay off their workers. (29:10 - 29:38) Then World War I comes. Congress then tells it, no, no, no, no longer buying corporate. You're going to buy our debt because we have to fund the war. And then they never put it back. Then FDR comes and he changed the entire structure of the Federal Reserve. Why do we have 13 branches? You can look on Newspaper.com and look at one of the newspapers from 1920s. (29:39 - 30:33) Each branch was independent because there are capital, regional capital flows. For example, in 1906, there was a San Francisco earthquake. Insurance companies are on the East Coast. So the money moved from the East Coast to the West. That created a shortage locally in the East. And banks began to fail. And that became the panic in 1907. And you see it there in Canada. They were raising interest rates in the 20-some percent to fight real estate speculation back in the 80s in Toronto. Meanwhile, they're putting farmers and miners into bankruptcy in the West. So we're all not the same identical economy. The U.S. has basically four different types of economy. (30:33 - 31:08) Even in the Civil War, the North was more industrial and the South was more agrarian. So the problem that this idea of a one-world government runs into is that it always fails because you have regional differences. Besides cultural things in Europe and languages and things of that nature, you have these regional differences in the economy. (31:09 - 33:15) So raising interest rates because of inflation in Toronto may be for that reason, but it affects other regions negatively. So that's why I said the Fed was originally correctly designed. It was to handle the regional capital flows. So you will see interest rates, if there was a shortage of cash in St. Louis, that would be at 4%, and others would be at 2% or 3%. It was to attract capital naturally to there, to balance out the economy. And it was FDR trying to get through his socialistic agenda. He usurped all that in 1935 when interest rates fits all. So that's been the real problem. And whenever you see governments go into this centralized control, they always fail. And that's what's happening in Europe. It's causing the tensions there in Canada, as well in the United States. You had Camilla. Somebody was at one of her rallies and brought up abortion and God or whatever, and her response was, you're at the wrong rally. In other words, I get in. I don't care about your religion, your culture, whatever. It's going to be my way. That's not the way civilization functions. This is now dictatorial. And this is why it fails. And if you just look at Russia, most people don't really know the full history of Russia. Lenin, although he was a communist, his theory was basically to build it like the United States, that each republic retained its sovereignty and could even basically exit the Confederation if they chose to. (33:17 - 34:23) Kind of like Alberta versus Quebec or whatever. It was Stalin who came in and Lenin even wrote a do not let him secede me. And among Russians, it's widely speculated that maybe Lenin even poisoned Lenin. I mean, Stalin poisoned Lenin. But he seized power. He's the one that created the USSR. He usurped all the power from the republics, one size fits all. And that's why Europe basically or Russia really collapsed. And when communism was collapsing, I was also called into China. And so I met with the central bank over there. And I was actually quite impressed. They were monitoring everything, but they were not interfering. (34:25 - 35:21) And there were actually 249 different T's. I had no idea there were really that many. I had to answer questions that were very basic to us in the West. It was like, well, why is this one T selling for a dollar here and five dollars there? Because under communism, everybody had to be equal. So if it was a dollar here, it had to be a dollar there, even if it cost you 10 bucks to get it there. And very inefficient. That's why communism just this one size fits all nonsense doesn't work. And then I explained, look, somebody will pay more for this T versus that one because they like it more. I was like, oh, really? Yeah. I mean, we had a Russian girl that had worked for us as a programmer. She came in to the States. And it was funny to listen to her. (35:21 - 36:07) She said when she went to the store, she didn't know what to do. And she said, there's so many brands of toilet paper. How do I make a decision? She said, in Russia, it was just one brand. That was it. You had no choice. Just little things like that really showed the difference between communism and a free market society. That they had the very basic decision, which toilet paper? How do I know this one's better than that one? That we just wouldn't even think about. But you made a really good point there about global governments, or we could even historically say empires of conquered countries. They always fall apart and they fall apart because of regional differences. (36:08 - 39:17) And that begs a question. Is this the real reason? Because as we've already determined, the EU was a model for a global government. It was all orchestrated to happen. Is this the real reason for the unbridled immigration that they're trying to erase those regional differences by watering down the cultures? And of course, that massive immigration is bad for the economy, so it makes them all poor. In addition, the more economically a nation benefits, the birth rate historically goes down. You can even look up the first Roman Emperor Augustus, past family laws, the same problem. You can't marry a slave. If you didn't have children, you couldn't even be a senator. So you see this pretty standard, mainly because of the age difference. Historically, before socialism, et cetera, I would go, let's say you had a daughter, and I'd say, I want to marry your daughter. And your first question would be, what do you got? This is why the age difference was typically twice the age, because first the guy had to go out, get the house, the farm, the chickens to prove to you I can support your daughter and a family. You couldn't say, oh, nothing. We're going to live in a field of daisies, and there's always welfare or something. So socially, things have changed over the centuries. And socialism basically did a lot of that, that the age difference collapsed because they didn't have to do that anymore. Oh, government's there to take care of us. So economically, the only government or empire that lasted for like a thousand years was wrong. Why? Because they did not impose centralized control. The Romans, you know, a lot of Christians, they were all pagans. They had hundreds of gods. Not exactly true. What it was, was that they conquered an area, they allowed them to keep their culture. So yes, hundreds of different gods. Romans didn't necessarily worship them, but they allowed each region to keep its culture, its own religion or whatever. They didn't dictate to some sort of a centralized control. And it became beneficial to remain part of the empire because it was free trade. If you're making vases in France, you could sell it to somebody in Syria. (39:18 - 41:45) So it was economically beneficial. There were, you know, chains of, you know, that's what they say, all roads led to Rome because they built roads, you know, so commerce could actually move and things of this nature. So it wasn't the same thing as this socialistic idea. You're going to do it my way or no way, you know? So that's why Rome lasted. And you get these people that say, oh, see one government. I said, yeah, fine. How many civil wars did Rome have? You know, one government is not the answer because, you know, I even have a video on my site of the former head of France, Holland, with Merkel in the parliament saying the reason we created this was one government will end war. It doesn't because you still have all the regional differences. And all I hear from all over is that, you know, most people are just pissed off at Brussels now. They want their own culture back. This centralized dictation, you will accept migrants. And nobody's allowed to vote on this stuff. You look at Angela Merkel, you know, she came from the East, brought her policies of dictatorial control, basically. And you look at the current head of state, which for the EU, Ursula, she's never stood for an election. And you have no right to vote for these people. So the people that make all the laws, it's the commission. It's not the people you vote for. They have no power to actually overrule the commission. And they're just a bunch of people that are appointed in the back room and they come up with their ideas and that's it. So it's very anti-democratic. And that's how the EU was created based upon the three philosophers from Greece, Aristotle, Socrates, and Plato. (41:46 - 42:00) They were anti-democrat because they said, oh, the people are too stupid to vote. And that, you know, has basically been with us for centuries. You know, I disagree with it. (42:00 - 42:19) I mean, but, I mean, like Vietnam, you're 18, you're old enough, here's a gun, go kill somebody. You weren't old enough to have a drink and you weren't old enough to vote. But that's democracy? I don't think that's in the dictionary that way. (42:20 - 43:53) Well, thanks, Sid. All right. So Martin, you've painted a very good picture of the situation in the EU and Russia and the differences there that, and you published a blog on your site very recently where you came right up and said, war is inevitable. It's going to happen. But before we can discuss that war, I think we have to briefly talk about China and what they're up to. And I also happen to know that their economy is not doing well, but that hasn't stopped Xi Jinping from really escalating their military spending. I believe they now have something like 17 naval shipyards compared to America's five. They've been building warships and tanks and all this, droves. So what are the challenges that China is facing and what do you think Xi Jinping is trying to do about it? What's his plan? China has looked at both the economic models of Europe and the United States. Germany and Europe are very closed economies and they're still really following the 18th century mercantile design. Whereas the United States is a consumer-based economy. And that's why the United States became the financial capital of the world. (43:54 - 44:16) Japan needed to sell their Toyotas. The US had a market to sell it. Germany needed to sell their BMWs. But if you look at what's the net worth of a German, the average German is below that of Italy. Yet it's the strongest economy. They keep very high taxes, regulations, things of this nature. (44:18 - 45:07) And so China has looked at both economies. And China is trying to develop a consumer-based economy, establishing the Silk Road, looking at getting into Africa, South America, etc. They're looking at it from an economic standpoint. The problem with the West is understanding really how to deal with the East. They have different mentalities. And Trump's negotiation with China initially was absolutely wrong. (45:07 - 45:54) You don't publicly say, you do this or I'm going to do that or whatever. That and their Asian culture is like a slap in the face. And now they cannot. Otherwise, they would appear weak. You're going to do something like that. It's going to be privately on a phone call, not public. So that's why China appeared to be digging in its heels, etc. And this is just simply the way different cultures exist. When we had Japanese clients coming over to the States, they had to know absolutely everybody in the office, right down to somebody who was going to be there just for two days as a temp. (45:55 - 46:03) Why? Because it's their culture. They have to bring them a present. We don't have that in the US. (46:04 - 48:48) I spoke in Japan one time and a journalist came in a little bit late and he sits next to this guy and he allowed him to use his notes to write this article. So we're going to go see the guy that lent the notes. And I'm told, oh, we have to stop and buy a gift. I said, a gift for what? Well, he lent the notes to this guy and he wrote the article. So you have to buy him a gift. And I said, what if I didn't know he did that? Oh, you have to know. It's just the culture. You have to understand they do things differently. So the neocons in the Biden administration really messed up China. Everything was fine. We had this one China policy. Yes, we agree. Taiwan's part of China. As long as everybody agreed, they didn't have to go in. And then all of a sudden you had Pelosi going to flying herself to Taiwan. Oh, you're independent. Stand up for that and all this stuff. And you have Blinken doing the same thing. You help Russia. We're going to cut you off. This is confrontational. Now they have to go in. It's a loss of face or whatever you want to call it. But you cannot deal with Asia in this manner. But I can tell you that China believes in cycles. It's part of their religion. They know, as we have offices there, and I never had to explain that cycles existed to any Asian audience, only the West. And they say they know their time is coming and they will replace the United States. Very patient. Fine. They just know it's inevitable. We get in this, you know, all this rope agenda and creating divisions and all this stuff. And very true. I mean, this is, you know, even Putin looks at it. He says, we've been through that. We're not doing that again. So now that we... Please continue. No, go on. You know, I say I've dealt with China and I've dealt with Russia and even Eastern Europeans. (48:50 - 53:38) Typically the Eastern Europeans have come to the United States and they all say the same thing. This is what I fled from. You know, cancel culture, stuff like that. And, you know, Putin is not a communist. If he dared tried, he probably would be overthrown by his own people. They do not want to go back to communism. And neither do the average, you know, person in China. You know, I've dealt with Congress. Oh, well, it's a communist party. I said, they're not communists. Come on. Don't you understand the definition? You have no clue about Asia, do you? I said, communism means the government owns everything. All right. They don't have that in China. But if they change the name of the party, they'd have to admit that Mao was wrong and take his picture off of the Forbidden City. So it's kind of like, yeah, we're, you know, we just leave the name, but we're not really communists. We know that. It's all about this saving face thing. And then, you know, I said, you know, oh, it's the communist party. No, it's not. Don't you even understand what a communist is? Or a fascist? You know, people say, oh, well, Trump is a fascist. Really? Do you understand what fascism is? It's the government ruling everything in the corporations. I don't think he's handing his corporations to the government. No, I would say Donald Trump's about the opposite of a fascist. But okay. So now, Martin, you've given this really good picture of what, in my limited knowledge, I would say is the three major players in that area of the world. And you said, there's war coming. And I know some of my viewers here in Canada are thinking, well, what does all this have to do with us? Well, we'll get there because it will affect us. So your predictions, Martin, how do you see this playing out? And what are the repercussions going to be? I think largely that the ethnic hatred throughout the whole Balkans and that region is just like World War I. They're not negotiable or solved. You can't solve this stuff. You have Zelenskyy saying, no, we're not giving back the land. Look up what started this. 2014, as soon as the revolution took place in Odessa, they were grabbing Russians off the street and killing them. They ran into the Trade Center building. And what did they do? They set it on fire and burned them to death. Geez, a dumb boss wants to separate? Why would they want to? You know, I mean... And for people who may not believe that, I'm going to insert a little story of my own. I'm in communication with a guy in Ukraine, an ordinary working guy. And he's told me some things that are going on there. I mean, Zelenskyy has done a pretty good job of selling himself as being this sort of affable goof. He's not. He's a dictator. This guy I know, he had a friend who was taken off the street by the military police, held for several days, tortured, and he hadn't even done anything. And that's apparently common in the Ukraine. Even though I've got contacts there, I cannot get someone in the ground, in Ukraine, to do an interview to tell us what's really happening, because they're afraid of their own government. Yeah, I mean, look, I had a friend who was a source there, a former journalist, Lera. They arrested him, threw him in prison, because he even told me, probably more than two years ago, that Zelenskyy was a cokehead. They threw him in prison. Oh, and then he miraculously dies of pneumonia. How about that? The people I speak to in Ukraine, like you, they told me that if Zelenskyy was on fire, they wouldn't urinate on him until he was dead. He is extremely hated. And basically, you know, he's supported because all the money's just going into the people that support him in their pockets. That's it. I mean, I've dealt in billions. I mean, that's a lot of money. I mean, an individual could never spend a billion dollars. That's why you see Bill Gates, all that kind of money is good for is bribing other people. The most expensive house, I think, in the United States is like 100 million. (53:39 - 54:20) So how many houses can you buy? How many cars can you buy? It doesn't change your lifestyle at that level of money. And we're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. Where do you go? There's no accountability. Trump with his doge and people, oh, this is ridiculous. Yes, corruption, but also total incompetence, total incompetence. And sometimes you can't go to a bank and say, do you want to borrow some money? Where's your financials? Well, here I made it up. (54:20 - 55:33) It's not acceptable. Yet the government, the Pentagon hasn't passed a single audit of themselves in, what is it, 10 years? It's pathetic. But Ukraine is just one giant black hole. And I talk to people around Ukraine, and they all, they hate Ukrainians. They say, you know, if you should cancel Ukraine, you better make sure you still have your arm, not your fingers. It's, you know, I've been dealing with Romania, you know, in the past few days, they're going to elections on the 18th. They interfered in their election, because NATO is building a big, was building a secret plant that now I think everybody knows about, airbase there to attack Russia. And Romanians don't want to go to war with Russia. They know that they're just, you know, cannon fodder like the rest of the, you know, Ukrainians. (55:33 - 57:40) And the EU is just saying, you know, you go in there. They don't really care if one Ukrainian is still standing at the end of this, as long as they weaken Russia, so they can walk in and they think that they're just going to grab the 75 trillion in assets. And what I've been told from somebody high up in France, that the main leader is Macron, and they call him the petite Napoleon. And that he thinks that grabbing that 75 trillion, and he'll sacrifice every Eastern European, so they can just walk in and take it. And that's twice the size of the US national debt. And finally, Napoleon will have conquered all of Europe and lead the world. And they think that the Europe will rise like the Roman Empire and lead. And we'll, and North America will be the vassal states again. I see a major danger there, because Putin's come right up and said that if Europe attacks him, he may use nukes. France has them. Germany has nukes. Are we looking at potentially a nuclear world war? Look, I was told also from sources that Macron was also a cokehead. With these last little pictures that came out of him, you know, grabbing it off the table and sticking it, oh, it's a tissue. Why hide a tissue? And then you got Merck, you know, hiding the spoon. I mean, is this why we're going into this war? You got a bunch of cokeheads running these governments? I mean, look, I've been dealing with heads of state since the 80s. You know, Reagan. I knew Thatcher. She even spoke at one of our conferences. (57:40 - 58:29) And you've been to her house for Christmas. You used to be able to have intelligent conversations with people directly back then. I don't know any one of them that I would want to sit down and even have a drink with today. None of them. Is that, I got to ask, does that include Trump? Uh, I would at least sit down. I have been to dinner with Trump back in March of 2020 when he was president the first time. He did impress me that he said he wanted to pull the troops out of Afghanistan. But it was the reason he said he was tired of writing letters to their families. Your son died for God and country. (58:31 - 1:02:25) And to quote him then, he said, um, you know, what difference, what are we doing there? What difference are we going to make? They've been fighting over borders for a thousand years. Um, and I got to jump in on that one, Martin, because you've just answered a major question that's going to be going through a lot of people's heads of, and we'll, we'll get to this later, but a lot of people looking at all the tariffs and then suddenly he's going out and he's doing deals with countries that are well known for human rights abuses. And you've just explained why right there, because his philosophy is meddling with their, their politics or whatever they're doing, it's gonna make any difference anyways. So let's just make a deal with them and move on. Yeah, look, um, I have articulated this in, uh, in Congress and I think I'm starting to get people actually starting to listen. The, you have peace when there are economic ties. Um, the sanctions against Russia are wrong. If you have economic ties and Russian businessmen and the people are benefiting by selling stuff to the United States and vice versa, then they are the check against their leadership for war. They're going to go, you want to go to war? I'm out of business. Um, this is what kept Rome alive for so long. It was economically beneficial to be in rather than out. When you start putting on sanctions and things of this nature, it doesn't do anything. Um, and it never leads to peace. So what is your objective here? Um, you know, if you really wanted to change Iran, you're not going to do it with sanctions. You know, the only way is to get the average person involved and making a beneficial living by international commerce. That's what kept Rome alive. You're making a really good point there. I don't know whether we should believe them or not, but Iran announced, I think just yesterday, that if they signed this deal with the U.S., they would give up development of nuclear weapons. I, I have some pretty good sources from there, and they do not want to go to war with the United States. That much I've been told. They know they would be wiped out and a loser. Um, so, you know, look, I think it's beneficial, um, you know, if it can be done. You know, on the other hand, I can understand why they would want nuclear weapons. You know, um, if you have nuclear weapons, then maybe countries like the U.S. won't invade. Um, you know, it, it's, you know, a flip of the coin either way. Uh, it's just, I've looked at sanctions do not work economically. Um, they never achieve peace, and all they do is they, they keep everybody, you know, as enemies. Um, so what's the objective here? So once again, Martin, you've, you've given us this very clear picture of what are the real motivations for what's happening there versus what we're being told. And when you give us that information, I really think it adds a lot of weight to your own assertion that you've made that war is going to happen. It's, it seems inevitable when you look at the factors here. (1:02:25 - 1:03:51) And so possibly a nuclear war, let's hope not. So I think there's two major questions that I have to ask you then. One, who do you feel is going to win that war? And what will be the economic repercussions of that war? Um, one, our computer shows that Europe would lose. Um, if, um, I, I can say that, uh, Putin's not interested in a 30 day peace deal. Why? Because they would only rearm. He knows there is no solution and that the real enemy is no longer even Ukraine. It's, it's NATO. Um, so he understands that, you know, um, when you have every European country, you know, rearming, drafting people, obviously it's got nothing to do, you know, why should I agree with, to have some sort of a peace deal, uh, with Ukraine when you're only going to use it to build up forces and come right through there after me anyhow. Um, so our computers basically showing that the volatility is going to start rising quite aggressively next year. (1:03:51 - 1:04:51) And I would expect war, um, on a more grand scale, probably by 2027. Uh, I can say that China now understands what the issue is and there's no way they're going to allow Russia to do this alone, that this is a war against NATO, not Ukraine. And so they will come in and they will, um, ban with, with Russia. And they would be fools if they didn't, because these people, if they take down Russia, then China's next. Right. Yes. Um, it's just these people that, um, like I said, I've been to dinner with them. You do not see a warm light when you look at them in the eye. You just do not. Um. Okay. So your prediction is the war happens, Russia wins with China's help. (1:04:52 - 1:06:34) So what happens after that? Now we've got broke EU that just lost a war. I'm trying my best to keep the United States out of it. Um, I had been talking to people on Capitol Hill, people very also very close to Trump. And I was surprised. I said, look, we got to get a NATO because they're going to try and do a false flag to drag us in. And I was actually surprised. They said, you're right. We know that. So, I mean, that even Jamie Dimon had stayed, stood up at, um, at Davos, you know, he's the head of city, you know, city. And he said, Trump was right. She'd get the hell out of NATO. Yeah. Um, and, uh, and even as a Canadian, I desperately hope that happens because you don't have to be an economist to understand how bad it would be if America went to war against Russia and China. Well, NATO's already told your country to, uh, beef up its, its military, uh, expenditures. And what I've been told is that they've been also, um, basically informed that to create a draft. Yeah. And that's something we're very worried about. My wife and I, you know, we've got kids of that age. Yeah. Look, it's, uh, what are you fighting for? You know, it's, um, it's, let me say, Putin does not want Europe. That's all propaganda. (1:06:34 - 1:07:49) They have nothing there of any value, period. Um, all you're going to get is occupation, hazards, civil unrest. Which is kind of where my question was going. So if this scenario plays out as you're seeing it, there's the war, Russia, China, win, the EU loses, they're broke, but Russia doesn't want them. So what happens to the EU then? Well, our computer shows that it's going to break up anyhow. Um, um, the EU is failing and hopefully that they break up and, and keeps them out of war. Um, there are a number of, of, I can tell you, Croatia, Serbia, um, Hungary, most of the former states, except for Poland, Poland seems to be their new leadership wants to, you know, they're probably the most, uh, dangerous at this stage in the game. Um, but most of the others, you know, they look at them like you're out of your mind. We do not want to go to war with Russia. (1:07:51 - 1:09:29) Um, so I, I don't, I think basically that this idea that Europe is going to rise again from the ashes and be the new Roman empire. It's just, it's all fiction. Um, they, they, their socialistic agenda. Um, I can tell you, I met, um, Margaret Thatcher cause I was restructuring companies from Japan that wanted to go into the EU. And if they need the best tax deals, like airlines, I was putting them in Ireland. If they needed skilled labor like auto, uh, I was putting them in Britain. And I happened to have known her, uh, chief economic personal advisor, sir, Alan Walters. And she had heard this rumor about this guy sending companies here. He says, yeah, that's Marty. And she's really, I want to meet this guy then. Well, what's going on? And she asked me, and that's why I said she was very smart is why are you putting people here in Britain versus the rest of Europe? I said, and the cost, um, is 40% higher in Germany than in Britain. Even if I pay the person the same amount of wage, it's all the regulations and everything else on top of it. Um, as socialists like to say, oh, they moved offshore cause I'm paying this guy $8 instead of 10. That's not it. Uh, I put people into, um, companies into Macedonia. (1:09:29 - 1:10:14) Why? Cause I got a 25 year guarantee of no tax increase. Um, um, you can't be putting spending billions of dollars and setting up a thing. Okay. Fine. Our taxes are 5% when you're done. Oh, now they're 25. Yeah. Um, you know, government is, is all governments are the same. They act only in their own self-interest. They do not give a shit about the people or the economy or, or anything else. If they did, they wouldn't be doing all this crazy stuff. Um, uh, everybody thinks you, you know, that not giving up the Donbass is beneficial to Ukrainian people. (1:10:14 - 1:10:26) 8 million have fled the country. Ask them if, if it really looks good for them. Um, it's just, it's, it's all, you know, theater and that's about it. (1:10:27 - 1:11:01) Right. All right. Martin, thank you so much for the generous gift of your time today. And for all the things that you've explained, um, that's going on behind the smoke and mirrors that we're constantly hearing. Um, and folks, um, just off camera, um, Martin very kindly agreed to come back in a few weeks for interview number two, because we wanted to get to North America today and talking about us and Canada and, uh, what's going to happen if in Canada, if Alberta separates, that's a big one. So Martin, looking forward to that when you've got time, I'd really look forward to that discussion with you as well. Oh, be glad to do it. No problem.