(LifeSiteNews) — Though currently under a fragile, extended ceasefire, the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, with respective blockades of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting oil flows, another crisis looms that also threatens the world’s dinner plates.

A recent analysis warns that the current military campaign is choking fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially triggering the worst food crisis since the 1970s energy crisis.

Tibi Puiu, a science journalist for ZME Science, explained in a March 31 essay how modern farming depends on nitrogen fertilizers produced using natural gas, and nearly one-third of the world’s fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Qatar alone supplies 15% of global urea production and controls about 50% of internationally traded urea, a vital nitrogen fertilizer. With shipping remaining restricted due to forces from both sides of the conflict, the critical shipments have largely halted.

The ripple effects have been immediate, with fertilizer plants in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan shutting down or slowing their production due to the reliance on imported natural gas from the Gulf.

Urea prices have naturally surged roughly 50%, ammonia by 20%, and diesel — essential for farm machinery and transport — by 60%.

“The potential is there for this to develop into a major crisis for poor and hungry people,” Matin Qaim of the University of Bonn told New Scientist.

‘It’s inevitable that food prices will go up,’ perhaps by 20%-30%

Spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere is underway at the worst possible moment. U.S. farmers, already facing grim economics, are hit hardest. The country imports about half its urea consumption and 25% of total fertilizer needs, according to the American Farm Bureau.

Independent analyst Philip Coffin warned, “With crop economics as bad as they are right now, it doesn’t take much to destroy (a farmer’s) income statement.”

Soybean growers were losing $138 per acre and corn farmers $230 per acre even before the latest spikes, with agricultural bankruptcies surging by 46% in 2025.

Summing up the converging factors, Puiu wrote, “Now, with input costs skyrocketing, farmers face an impossible choice: plant at a massive loss, switch to less nutrient-intensive crops, or plant nothing at all.”

Fertilizer specialist Deepika Thapliyal stated bluntly, “It’s inevitable that food prices will go up,” and Qaim projects that doubled fertilizer prices could push food costs 20%-30% higher.

These dynamics differ sharply from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war that disrupted grain exports, but the Iran conflict strikes at the inputs needed to grow crops anywhere.

Due to these bottlenecks in the Middle East, Russia and Belarus have gained greater leverage as dominant exporters, and China has restricted its own fertilizer shipments to protect domestic supplies.

For its part, the Trump administration has eased pressure by loosening sanctions on Belarusian and Venezuelan fertilizer, but as explained by Puiu, “Venezuela’s neglected infrastructure makes rapid production impossible.”

Europe ‘burning about 15 million loaves of bread every day for biofuels’

According to the scientific journalist, who has a master’s degree in renewable energy systems, these dangers of the crisis are compounded by wealthy nations diverting food to produce food.

“More than 5% of all food calories grown globally are transformed into biofuels to power vehicles,” Puiu wrote. “In the United States, roughly one-third of the entire corn crop becomes bioethanol.”

“If fertilizer is scarce, shouldn’t we prioritize every calorie we grow to feed human beings?” he asked.

“We’re burning about 15 million loaves of bread in Europe every day for biofuels,” illustrated Paul Behrens at the University of Oxford. “This is a crazy way to produce energy.”

“Instead of releasing this food into the market to stabilize grocery bills, governments are moving in the exact opposite direction,” Puiu lamented. “The U.S. and Australia are pushing to increase the proportion of bioethanol in gasoline, hoping to bring down the cost of driving.”

“However, burning more food into fuel barely dents the price of gas, and has a disproportionate effect on the grocery store,” he said.

History shows food price spikes fuel instability, revolution

Weather uncertainties can also be a threat multiplier should it impact crop yields in the coming year.

“There’s a lot of potential for this to spin out of control and lead to a just as severe, if not a worse, crisis,” said Jennifer Clapp at the University of Waterloo. “If we have major climate events, it could definitely spiral into something much more severe.”

Anthony Ryan of the University of Sheffield underscored the stakes: “If we stopped using mineral fertilizer completely worldwide, we would probably see half of the world starving.”

History shows food price spikes fuel instability — from the French Revolution to the 1848 European upheavals and unrest linked to 1990-2011 price surges. Experts stress the crisis is not inevitable but requires swift action to reopen supply lines.

As the Gulf conflict persists, the real battleground may shift to the world’s farmland. Without rapid diplomatic or logistical solutions, 1970s-style food shocks risk becoming a harsh reality, driving higher grocery bills and deepening hunger, especially in the Global South.