Volatility trapdoored last week, but don’t let the calm surface fool you. Underneath, the options market is still shouting Danger.

The result? A market ripe for reversal if macro risks reemerge, setting up traders for a potential rug-pull scenario.

Indeed, while the front end of the volatility curve crashed, longer-dated futures remain sticky, a sign that big institutional money isn’t buying the narrative just yet. The volatility term structure remains quite elevated over the historical 90day range, as shown below. 

This raises the important question: What risks should the market brace for?

Our partners at SpotGamma provide an answer today at 1:30pm, when they hold a Free Webinar, so Grab Your Seat.

FOMC, China Trade, and Geopolitical Risk

It’s shaping up as the most volatile 72 hours of the quarter, between central bank announcements, Mag 7 earnings, and the Trump-Xi summit. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting is expected to deliver high drama, as the board juggles inflation, tepid growth, and a market that’s already on edge.

Meanwhile, uncertainty in trade relations with China continues to hang like a sword over global supply chains, feeding into the global risk premium at a time when every tick counts and complacency is dangerous.

Earnings: The Shockwaves from NFLX & TSLA

Proving the cracks in single stock optimism, Netflix and Tesla posted massive earnings misses. This sent their shares into freefall last week, sounding the alarm for both the service and discretionary goods sectors.

Netflix was hit with a surprise $619 million tax expense from Brazil, which obliterated its EPS estimates, while Tesla watched costs surge — even record sales couldn’t save its bottom line from sliding sharply.

If this signals trouble at the top of the market, the ripple could easily transform into a wave for smaller players who lack the financial cushion to weather hits like these.

Global Business: No Sanctuary from the Storm

Don’t look abroad for shelter — global business remains hostage to volatility, regulatory headaches, and shifting policies.

Major U.S. indices slumped last week as investors digested earnings carnage and waited nervously for the next shoe to drop from tariff talks, all while economic data releases have ground to a halt from the government shutdown.

The overwhelming global anxiety in today’s market highlights how no corner of the market is truly immune from the current tumult.

Path Forward: Prepare for Anything

Despite headline risks and high-profile earnings shocks, the options landscape tells a story of unexpected short-term stability — at least for now.

But as we approach a schedule full of high-profile market events, turbulent MAG7 earnings, and a global business environment unlike any other, traders need to monitor what could trigger the collapse of our current market stability.

As we watch the next FOMC announcement and further China trade headlines, all eyes should remain glued to volatility — a hidden force that shows us how much movement the market expects. Once traders begin expecting more meaningful price action, then we know the the stage is set for true fireworks.

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