(0:00 - 0:38) The signs are on the wall that we are headed for a housing crash, worse than the one in 2008 that was triggered by the commercial paper crisis. Rising interest rates, record debt, and new housing policies in Canada are increasing risks of foreclosures and forced sales, while ageing homeowners face falling property values, shrinking demand, and higher taxes. Private real estate funds are freezing redemptions, and the global derivatives market now exceeds $4 quadrillion, greatly amplifying the financial risk of relying on real estate assets to secure your future. (0:40 - 4:59) Meanwhile, gold prices have surged in the last two years from $2,400 U.S. per ounce to a current record of over $4,000 per ounce, and rising almost daily. Central banks and nation states are heavily investing in gold and silver, moving away from the dollar system, with China's Shanghai Cooperative Exchange facilitating this shift. And there are sound reasons to believe that gold will soon be revalued, possibly to $20,000 per ounce or more. The global financial markets and economic system are teetering on the brink of collapse, but as with all financial disasters in history, those who own gold not only secure their future, but profit. In this, Part 1 of 3 of our 2025 Third Quarter Financial Update, I'm joined by Adrian Spitters, a personal financial consultant who correctly predicted the stock market crashes of 2000 and 2008, and Bryce Wade of New World Precious Metals, to reveal the many indicators which show that not only have gold prices not peaked, but they may have only just started their most meteoric rise in history. Bryce, Adrian, welcome back to the show. This is our third quarter update. I think it's about two years now we've been doing these financial updates, and they are one of our most well-received interviews that we put out. So this time, though, we're going to switch things around a little bit. Normally, Bryce, being our big picture guy, starts out, but today, Adrian, we're going to start with you, and Warren, folks, for those of you who are wondering where the heck Warren is, moving forward, what's going to happen is because both Bryce and Warren are with New World Precious Metals, they're going to be trading off on these interviews, rather than having both of them on. So, Adrian, where are we going today? Well, I've got three different topics I'm going to talk about. One is about what's going on in the real estate market, and then the second area is going to be touching base on stablecoin, gold revaluation, what's going on there, and then on the third section, I'm going to be talking about the trade wars and how that's impacting Canada and what Trump's really up to. So in the first section, I'll be discussing how the coming housing downturn is shaping up to be far deeper and more systemic than the crash of 2008. Cracks in private real estate and mortgage markets are spreading through the entire financial system, driven by leverage, regulation, and vanishing liquidity. Canadians are specifically at risk. Rising interest rates, record debt, and new housing policies are setting the stage for foreclosures and forced sales. Many ageing homeowners now face falling property values, shrinking demand, and higher taxes. Private real estate funds are freezing redemptions. The global derivatives market has ballooned to over $4 quadrillion, and the illusion of endless real estate growth is collapsing. The next crisis will not just erase wealth, it will redefine ownership in a world of tightening control and shrinking freedom. Physical gold remains the last independent store of value. Wow, okay, so we still have a lot to cover today. Bryce, do you want to add anything to that before we get into Adrian talking about real estate? Oh yeah, man. So we've been doing this for two years, right, and the entire time I've been saying there is massive changes coming. Well, we are now living through that change. This is, in the sense of financial history, that we're living through one of the moments in financial history that future generations will look back on and be like, that was like 1929. We're living through that level of stuff. I would say we've already seen those massive changes. When we started doing these interviews two years ago, if I recall right, gold was around about $2,400 an ounce. Sounds about right, yep. We have $4,200 an ounce now, record. $4,200 today, right now. People said, no, it's just never going to happen. Here we are, and it's still climbing. I think the writing's on the wall, folks. There's some major things coming. Yeah, well, and this is what I mean. I've been saying this a lot. You look at where your situation was five years ago, right? You had whatever situation you were in, and you look at where you are now. (5:00 - 6:45) Good, bad, ugly, or otherwise, this is something. There's major changes happening. Now, like I've been saying, there's something coming. Well, we're now seeing what is coming right now. The next five years are going to make the last five years look like a hill instead of a mountain that we thought it was. The stuff that's happening in the financial system, the people that are at a very high level of finance, like Adrian just said, there's lots of stuff happening. When there's things that are changing, there's opportunity and there's risk, right? There's millionaires that are made and millions that are lost in times of risk and change, right? One of the things that we're seeing right now is an absolute explosion in the silver prices because there's basically a global shortage right now happening. There's a silver squeeze happening. There's lack of liquidity. There's massive changes in the lease rates, which makes short positions and leasing out precious metals very expensive. The miners and the refiners, they're all having problems right now. This is in the space of a week. The trade war has been reignited with China because China has made this absolutely massive sea change in how they're doing exports of rare earths. There's so much that's happening right now. I can't even put into words how much of a change is actually happening. This is why I've been telling everybody and this is why some of the other experts in our industry are saying this as well. If you want to get precious metals, you'd better do it soon because there's already a shortage. There was already a massive demand. Well, at some point, nobody's going to have any left. I had a client message me this morning and say that his local shop, somebody just came in and bought everything. They're sold out. (6:45 - 7:18) There's people that are talking about Costco sold out, right? There's lots of stuff happening. We're telling you for a while, if you still want to do this, you should do it soon, if not now. All right. Adrian, let's get back to you. Let's talk about real estate. This was at my request. Thank you very much for filling that request because as you gentlemen know, I've been convinced for years now that we are headed towards a massive crash in the value of real estate. We are. Well, Will, the next housing crash will be far worse than 2008. (7:19 - 9:05) The rising mortgage inventory, collapsing affordability and record global debt are converging into a perfect storm. The difference this time is leveraged. The global derivatives market now exceeds $4 quadrillion, amplifying every loss and spreading risk through the entire financial system. In Canada, 60% of mortgages will reset by the end of 2027. That's a lot of populations in the world. This is not a market correction. It is a systemic reset that will reshape wealth and ownership. Those who act now by reallocating into tangible income producing assets like private real estate, assets like gold, silver, farmland, income producing assets are going to be the way to go. Some of the warning signs that we're seeing, Will, is housing inventories are rising and prices are falling dramatically. In the States, the Federal Reserve is warning that today's risks are greater than 2008 because of the high leverage, speculation, manipulated debt and entire debt systems is now vulnerable. Affordability has collapsed. Back in 2008, the price of homes was about four times average income. Right now, it's roughly eight times average income in the US. They think it's bad. In Canada, we're averaging 13, 14 times average income. We're one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world today based on income. Derivatives and bank fragility. The global derivatives market exceeds $4 quadrillion. (9:05 - 9:53) I talked about that. Falling home values threaten the collateral and underpins pensions and balance sheets, risking global contagion. Back in 2008, it was just a mortgage crisis. Now, it is a complete crisis on every metric in the housing industry. Not only is the derivatives way, way bigger, it's multiple areas that are going to collapse. It's way, way worse. A mortgage time bomb in the next two years, like I said, roughly 60% of mortgages are going to be resetting from 2% to 6%. That is basically a tripling of mortgage costs as these mortgages refinance. I'm already starting to hear stories that banks are not refinancing existing mortgage holders. (9:54 - 10:39) Their mortgage, they made five years of payments. They have been making those payments. Now, they come to the table with this major mortgage reset and the bank is saying, sorry, we can't refinance you. Another story. If we're going from 2% to 6%, Adrian, and we've got somebody who's got a $1,500 mortgage payment at 2%, what's it going to become when they move it to 6%? 45%, something in that range. 15 is 3,000. No, that's 45. No bueno. How does that compare to the 2008 commercial paper crisis when all those introductory rates went up? I can't remember now what the rates were. (10:40 - 11:55) They had, I think, if I can remember, you had the first year, you got a lower rate, and then it automatically reset within a year, maybe two years. People thought, if I can just get into real estate, I'll figure out how to cover the cost down the road, except they never realised that their incomes were not going to cover their mortgages. Suddenly, they were hit with like, oh, crap, my mortgage is resetting. I can't make the payments. There was a delayed crash on the houses, basically. The credit crash happened, and then the houses started rolling over slowly until people couldn't. It took until 2011 before all the bad mortgages worked its way through the system. It was a long, drawn-out correction. It didn't happen all at once. It just went slow. If I'm remembering right, and I should be, because I was a realtor back then. In fact, that was why I left, because I saw what was coming. I think they were starting people half a percent, some of these introductory rates. Then it was jumping to something like 1.75%. A significantly smaller increase than what we're talking about right now from 2% to 6%. That one, back then, knocked record numbers of people out of the housing market into foreclosures. (11:56 - 15:07) STEVEN VAN METRE OFFICIAL Can you imagine today, when you're going from 2.5% to 6% or 5.5%, 6%? People are barely making it right now. They've squeezed in. A lot of people got second homes for working at home. That's why the cottage country in Ontario right now, it's collapsing because people bought a cottage. They're going to work from the cottage. They don't have to go to work. Now, they're stuck with the cottage, and they're stuck with their home and rising mortgage rates. Go ahead, Bryce. I just want to add a couple really important factors to what happened in 2007. People typically don't understand this, but the biggest asset that you have in your life is typically you and your job. That's something that's actually adding to your net worth, how you have income and revenue that's paying all of your bills because typically, you don't just live off of investments. You have to have something coming in to pay for your life. Some of that you save, and some of that you put away, and some of that you invest. What happened in 2007 that preceded all of this stuff, there's the financialization of the mortgage itself. That was one of the big factors that eventually blew up. The reason that it blew up is that people stopped paying their mortgages. The reason that they stopped paying their mortgages is because they lost their job. There's a huge layoff that happened in 2007, kind of like what we're seeing now. After you get laid off, and you don't have any income to pay for your bills, what do you use next? Your savings. If you run out of savings, what do you do? You start selling assets. You sell the luxury assets first, but then if you run out of luxury assets, then you start selling the hard assets because that's what your typically second biggest asset is that you have in your portfolio. This was typically real estate. What we're seeing right now is that there was a whole lot of people that lost their job because all of the stuff that's happened in the last five years. There's a lot of people that are now selling their assets because they've run out of savings, and they've run out of luxury assets. I have clients all across the country that are saying there's for sale signs everywhere. Right now, there's a lot of people that are retiring. There's a lot of people that are downsizing. There's a lot of people that bought Airbnbs, that bought cottages, second properties, and they're running out of money, and they can't afford the payments. There's a lot of people that are just like, I got to sell it. I got to get the money back. What happens when there's a lot more sellers than there is buyers? Prices go down, and it creates a doom loop of lower property prices, kind of what's happened in China that I've also talked about quite a bit. One of the important things to think about here is that we're still in the beginning stages of this because there's all the people that are like, I can do math, and I want to get out of this property. Give me the cash so I can be financially stable. Those are the people that wanted to sell, and there's still people that wanted to buy. Next year, when everybody has to refinance, or a lot of people need to refinance, there's going to be a lot of people that have to sell. When they have to sell, they'll just take anything that they can get. This is, I think, what's going to happen next year. Right. Then, of course, when they start seeing the foreclosures coming, well, the banks love this because it's one of the biggest scams ever. You have to pay cash down payment. They get to create the mortgage financing as numbers they put into a computer through fractional reserve banking. Then, when they foreclose, they get to sell the house again and do it all over. (15:10 - 15:43) Exactly. Banks create fiat money that they use then to finance your home, and then you lose your home, and the bank has nothing on it. Really, they'd have nothing at stake. They created the fiat money that allowed you to own it, and then you can't afford it. Now, they got the asset that they can sell and put in their coffers. Then from that, they can lend more money out again. Right, while the owner loses everything. All right, Adrian, I'm sorry we got busy there. We interrupted you with your talk about what's happening with housing, so please continue. (15:44 - 21:59) Bryce just took half of my points. Bryce, you and I need to talk. Sorry, bro. That's okay. I'll work around it. The next thing is new laws. We've been seeing this happening slowly over the last couple of years, but in this article here, I'm summarising all the laws that are being put in place just to make things much harder for you. The new housing laws are quietly redefining ownership in Canada. What was once private right is becoming a regulated privilege controlled by government and institutions. Net zero mandates, costly retrofits, and mortgage restrictions are forcing many homeowners to sell while landlords are being legislated out through fines, taxes, and zoning rules. At the same time, pension funds and asset managers are buying up housing, transforming communities into corporate rental markets with banks moving forward or towards programmable compliance-based credit tied to carbon and digital ID systems. Homeowners risk becoming regulated tenants in a managed state corporate housing model. This is not a housing reform. This is a controlled transfer of property and freedom from individuals to institutions. How does the blanket rezoning affect all of that, Adrian? I don't know about all cities in Canada. I know here in Calgary, there's certainly been a huge pushback on this blanket rezoning they're doing. I haven't looked too much into the blanket rezoning, but it's basically saying that you can only build certain types of housing. You can only do certain things. It's to do with basement suites or whatever, but you don't have the freedom to do what you used to do with your home. You can't do additions in many cases. We have an area up above where we live, which is rural, but you cannot really put an addition on your house because of environment that there's some, what they call a mountain beaver, you can't disturb your habitat, for example. I know that one of the concerns, especially for people who live in more stable middle-class neighbourhoods, is that some of their neighbours will then put in basement suites, which will perhaps attract undesirable residents, and that's going to negatively impact the property values. Just to get carrying on, some of the things that people are facing on these regulations is carbon compliance creates forced sales. One of the things I've been writing about quite a bit is that the carbon mandates or the net zero mandates are something that is coming. Right now, you're seeing all the utility companies offering special deals for window refits or new furnace. Those are teaser programmes where they're providing the financing so you can put a new furnace in or redo your windows at a discount. The plan is to make that even more so that people are used to getting the government helping them or the utilities helping them to do the refits, but they're getting financing from them. Then as the net zero requirements gets more stricter, you're going to have things like heat pumps. Instead of it being voluntary, it's going to become mandatory. It's when it becomes mandatory where it's become expensive. We all saw stories where Carney's now tied with companies or when he was with Brookfield, was tied with companies that were in the retrofitting business. His cronies or corporate buddies are getting to do the refitting of homes that are being legislated to do the refitting. What's going to happen is once these mandates are in place, banks are, again, climate financing, banks are going to require that a home meets certain net zero requirements before they'll lend money. That's not there yet, but it's being talked about. If you are ready to retire, you want to downsize to a townhouse or a condo because the kids are gone, you've got a big empty house, and you haven't refitted your home, the banks are going to say, well, for the buyer, that house is going to have to be retrofitted to meet the new standards before they will lend money for the buyer. Your buying pool will be reduced if you don't spend the money to do the retrofits. That's coming. Of course, they mandate the retrofits, make them requirements, they finance them, and now, they've pushed you further into debt. Yeah. That ties into the carbon footprint, where they're going to be measuring your home as to what your carbon footprint is on the home, the gas, the output of the house, they can measure it. Is it like the heat they can see with scanners, if you got heat leakage and stuff like that, they're going to be measuring how much carbon you're wasting. That's going to be something that is part of that whole retrofit situation. We've seen stories where basically, you can't rent out an Airbnb. A lot of people bought rental houses or bought rental apartments. In most areas, you can't rent them anymore. There's a push that you can't even have secondary suites in many areas. You can't do Airbnb. There's going to be big fines, etc. Another thing is we're starting to see institutional ownership coming down the pipe. I'll talk about that a little later on. The big push is to make housing unaffordable for the average homeowner. (22:00 - 25:32) You're going to be forced to sell and become a renter. They're building a bigger rental pool, not only from the immigrants that were coming into Canada. I know the story is that mass immigration is slowing down. A lot of those immigrants are now leaving Canada. They're building a new rental pool, and that's going to be the homeowners that lose their homes. There's another article that we wrote. It's titled The Dark Future of Boomer Homes. The boomer housing market is heading into a structural decline. Homes, once seen as symbols of wealth, are becoming liabilities as maintenance costs, taxes, demographic measures rise. Millions of ageing boomers will soon need to sell, flooding the market, and driving prices down. Younger generations cannot afford to buy these large properties, and many heirs are selling inherited homes at steep discounts. Governments are adding new taxes, and policy risks are growing and further eroding confidence. This marks the turning point. The era of housing as a guaranteed legacy of wealth is ending. Those who convert fragile home equity into real portable assets like gold and income-producing investments will preserve what others lose. Really, the boomer generation basically coined the McMansion as their symbol of wealth. I've made it. I've built this fantastic home. I got all these toys, and the homes to house all these toys. That is now going to be a financial trap for the boomers, and the kids, the next generation, don't have the means of buying it. You've got three or four kids or even two kids inherit the house. Neither of them have the means to take over that house, so that house is going to go for sale. Yes, and I've seen this happen before back when I was a and there's a neighbourhood here in Calgary that's just west of me. I was watching the listings there because yes, all those McMansions that were in there, $800,000, $900,000. In the space of two months, I watched 31 listings in that neighbourhood, in that price range, one of them sold. Here's an example that in Ontario, a $2.5 million lakefront home, after being on the market for almost a year, finally sold for 1.7 due to lack of maintenance because they weren't able to keep up the house because the kids live elsewhere. The house was for sale, not being maintained properly, and the final offer was considerably below. That's right now where they're saying the house prices are just barely coming down. Well, the real numbers, and you know it as a realtor, what the public sees and what as, okay, this is the price, it's listed for $2 million. What it sells for is far, far less, and you don't see that because they bury that. You're always told that this is the price, even though the comps are going to be a lot lower. Hopefully, their realtor is doing their job and telling them what similar houses actually sold for, which is what they're supposed to do, but that doesn't always happen. I saw this coming before that, back when the real estate market was really good. I would invest time with a buyer who was in that $700,000 up range, and they would look for several months. Then they would give up and say, well, we're going to build because we can't find exactly what we want. What are they building? They're building McMansions that they won't be able to sell to anyone. (25:33 - 26:21) We have a glut of these things on the market, and when it crashes, nobody's going to be able to sell them, or they're going to have to sell them for half of what they paid to build them. If I may, this is one of the reasons that everybody should have precious metals in their portfolio because this is something that isn't going to go to zero that you can always sell. You can always sell back to the market. The amount of money that is flowing into precious metals right now is a barometer of what's happening around us. With all the uncertainty and all of these things, these different areas of the economy being affected by what's happening these days, this is a safe haven asset. This is why people are moving, especially central banks and nation states are moving massive amounts of money into this asset for this reason. (26:21 - 29:21) Right. All right, Adrian, please continue. Okay. This is what a lot of people are asking is, what's going on with private real estate? Is it still safe? Private real estate cracks are widening. Gold is still the last safe haven. Private real estate is cracking under pressure as overleveraged funds freeze redemptions and cut distributions. Developers and REITs are struggling with high borrowing costs and falling valuations, exposing a liquidity crisis that is spreading across the financial system. Yet, opportunities do remain. Fully vetted, well-capitalised multifamily offerings through qualified exempt market dealers are positioned to acquire premium assets from distressed sellers at steep discounts. Balancing these private real estate investments with physical gold creates lasting stability, where income-producing assets and tangible wealth work together to preserve security through any reset. Basically, what's happening is there are a lot of real estate developments, developers, businesses that are like small operators, condo pre-sales, all these things are feeding into the narrative. In a lot of those areas, there's some bad, bad, bad news happening, especially, for example, in the condo pre-sale market. The developers are primarily building one-bedroom studio apartments that is demographically not even the right inventory for the market that's unfolding. A lot of these young people that were attracted to these places are raising families, and they're not going to be able to stay there very long. The real problem is that they're coming to market at a time that the market is collapsing. A lot of these pre-sales aren't qualifying for their financing. They're coming in and saying, look, it's time to close. They took those pre-sales at a 2% interest rate. Now, they're facing a 5.5%, 6% interest rate. The bank said, sorry, your property is not worth what you thought you bought it for. By the way, the interest rates are higher. There's no way you're carrying it. They're not qualifying. Now, the builders are winding up holding that inventory and having to now dump it at a deep discount. There's an example of one developer in Milton, Ontario, I think it was, that sold a pre-sales for $1,100 a square foot. And traditionally, they keep 25% of inventory that they expect to sell into the market when everything is completed, because usually, the prices are higher, so they can then make a profit on that 25%. First of all, their buyers weren't qualifying to close, so that put them into a bind. (29:21 - 31:03) They turned around and dumped it for $6.75 per square foot, those 25% of units. Not only did they just devalue the units that were already closed in the building, all being repriced. That one instance just set the price for the whole neighbourhood or for that whole area. That's happening. We've also got the fact that the buyer who put down a deposit on that unit, anywhere from possibly $20,000 to $50,000, they've lost it. They had to default because they couldn't afford the mortgage now. Now, another thing you're hearing in the news that there are, and it's mostly in the commercial sector, in the construction. These are private REITs as well that do commercial real estate, do retail shopping centres, plazas, et cetera. They are involved in smaller developments, or they're highly leveraged, and they're running into trouble right now. We call them the weak hands. They're stopping redemptions because what's happening is people are starting to hear the news, they're equating what's going on in the condo market and the housing market, and thinking that the purpose-built rental business is also in trouble, so they're asking their providers, they want their money back. Well, when you have a pool of real estate, you can't just raise the money to, unlike stocks where you can liquidate tomorrow, you have to put it up for sale and sell it, and the money is not readily available. (31:04 - 33:13) What they are starting to do, and you're seeing the weakness in the smaller developers, the undercapitalized developers, overleveraged developers are not in a position to meet redemptions. What they're doing is gating the redemptions to such time where the demand slows down, and then they're going to slowly pay back as they're able to sell properties and sell it. Not that people are going to lose their money, it's just that they're not going to have access to the money until they are able to manage the outgo of the payments. That's a risk that we're starting to see now is that the weaker hands are going to see troubles where they can't make return cash to the investor in a timely manner. Well, that sets the opportunity for the larger, well-capitalised property managers, especially in the multifamily rental space, is as these weak hands get in trouble, instead of selling one unit at a time, they'll sell their whole portfolio to a larger property manager at a discount. Now, the unit holders are going to take a loss on the value when that happens, but then the bigger guys are going to pick up inventory for a far, far cheaper price. There's good news and bad news in that sector. Can I just tack on to that a little bit? Yeah. I've talked about this in other updates, but the things that are happening now, like at the process of real estate revaluation, has been happening in China for four years because Evergrande blew up in 2021. That started a cascading effect of the entire property market in China basically blowing up. In some places, property prices have fallen between 50% and even 90% and they still can't sell, not only because there's not enough people, but nobody can afford them. If real estate continues to decline, well, why would I buy an asset that is continuing to decline? Maybe not to that level, but we don't know how bad this is going to get either. (33:14 - 34:11) That's a potential. Thank you for bringing that up, Bryce, because one of the reasons why I have believed for years since we're heading for a major crash in property values is because we're headed for a major population crash and it's simple supply and demand. If we find, and I think it's entirely realistic that we could, that 20, 25 years from now, we could be looking at a global population that's 20% lower than it is now. We've got older people who are going to be dying off. We've got a whole lot of younger people who've been sterilised or who are not having children because of the economy. We're going to see that major drop, but what happens when there's nobody to buy the properties? If you're looking at China, we're seeing 50% to 90%. Well, we could potentially see something like that where a home that's such as mine, which quite frankly, I think it's insane that it's worth $700,000 because it's just an ordinary bungalow, but we're close to downtown in Calgary. 20 years from now, this house could be worth half that. Yeah, I don't think it'll do that. (34:12 - 39:06) That's exactly what's happening in Japan. You can walk into houses for nothing almost, because all the boomers, because they had a bigger boomer bulge that was bigger, and it peaked in 1990 when the Japanese housing market collapsed and the stock market collapsed. They were at a 40-year decline. They've now bottled out, but they're not really recovering much. All those homes, like Tokyo and some of those big centres are still expensive, but rural Japan, prices are very, very attractive. There could be a silver lining there, because our daughter, for example, she's 24. She's got a great job. She's making almost $70,000 a year. Can she afford to buy a house? Well, not really. The down payments are ridiculous. Then, of course, you got to qualify for the mortgage. If we did see something like that, where 20 years from now, house prices have been slashed by half, well, then we might actually see a situation where younger people could once again have the opportunity of home ownership. As real estate prices keep collapsing because of the demographics and all the other things that are happening, gold is going to continue to rise as the only real asset that's got value. You want to have a down payment, shove that down payment into gold and silver and grow your down payment that way. Then when the house prices come down, you've got an asset that's gone up, and now you can buy more house. We're cheating here because my daughter has talked to Adrian, and that's exactly what she's doing. Put your money into one asset that's going up so that you can buy the asset that's going down. Yes. There's actually something to be said for that. There's a thing that I'll show you in a little bit, but when you measure things in gold, the price of things is vastly different. How much gold does it take to buy X thing? One of the examples, I was going to do this now. I had a friend that I saw recently, and he went to buy a military truck, one of those big 6x6 things, so he could put a house on the back for going and camping and begging out and whatever. He bought this truck that was about $60,000 for 12 ounces of gold. This is a couple months ago when gold was $5,000 an ounce. It's now almost $6,000 an ounce right now. This is a couple months ago. More than 10% rise in the price of gold in just this time. He bought that truck with 12 ounces of gold, and he paid silver for it. He traded his silver in for gold. Now, because he bought a lot of silver, because he was way ahead of the curve than most people, he bought this silver when it was really cheap. The $60,000 truck that would have cost $60,000, he actually paid roughly $12,000 for it because he invested in silver a long time ago. This is the thing that if you extrapolate this into other things, one of the ways that you can think about stuff is if I buy this silver and gold now, and it's in the future much higher, and the value of the dollar, the value of stuff, so the value of stuff is more, but the value of the dollar that we measured in is less, while you're not only saving and protecting your purchasing power, but you're also giving yourself a literal discount on the stuff that you're going to buy because of the increase in the price of the precious metals and the ratio of stuff to precious metals instead of stuff to dollars. Right. All right, Adrian, I think we've interrupted you again. Please continue. That's OK. On the next slide here, the housing market across the West is entering a systemic reset. The era of cheap credit is over. Families are burdened with debt and rising mortgage costs and are being forced to sell. As values fall, pension funds, private equity, and sovereign wealth funds holding over $400 billion of idle capital are waiting to buy distressed assets at scale. This is not a random market cycle, but a global transfer of property from individuals to institutions accelerated by tokenization, real estate, farmland, and even housing are being converted to digital shares, turning ownership into a permission-based right. The lesson is clear. Debt-driven systems always end in consolidation. Those who move early into tangible assets like gold will preserve autonomy as the next financial architecture takes shape. Now, just before I go on, I just remember what I was going to say about gold and owning. (39:06 - 41:09) In our book, it starts with gold. We talked about the Weimar Republic and did a calculation that if you sold your house before, had the wisdom to understand it was coming on, sold your house at the beginning of the hyperinflation and bought gold. Two years later, when the hyperinflation ended, that same amount of gold, you could buy 20 houses. That's the difference. Houses did not go up in value. They didn't really collapse that much, but the currency dropped so much that relative to the house prices, the houses weren't worth as much relative to currency, but gold went up 20 times. That's the power of investing in gold during economic uncertainty, especially when prices of everything else is going down. To go on, the Western housing crisis is accelerating. Housing markets in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia are deteriorating as families sell under pressure from job losses, refinancing costs, unaffordable debt, and an era of cheap credit is over. Mortgage rates near 2% will never return. Institutions are waiting to take over. There is roughly right now in pension funds and sovereign funds, over $400 billion in US dollars waiting for a collapse in the housing market so that they can be picking up those houses at scale to buy for their rental pool. The financial institutions are looking at basically that the housing market, the real estate market is going to be their next source of revenue to pad their portfolios. A lot of that money is sitting and waiting for the crash to happen, and they're manufacturing it. Another problem is tokenization of your home is coming. (41:09 - 42:04) Your mortgage is going to be tokenised. What they're going to be doing is they're going to be buying your home, put them into the pension funds, they're going to tokenise that so all assets potentially will become tokenised. Well, once you have a tokenised asset, it's not really yours because now your asset can be traded. I read a story where you have a mortgage and it's land titles, that mortgage now is turned into a token. They can now trade the token. Even though you bought the house and paid for the house, it's now tokenised and people are trading that house or those tokens on your house. Even if you're in the position where you don't have a mortgage, this is still going to affect you. That's my understanding. I haven't vetted it out yet, but I've heard that that's what's coming down the pipe, that even your title will be tokenised. (42:04 - 49:14) Well, if it's tokenised, what happens? Who owns it? Yeah, not you. It's going to be traded. Right. Just like they're going to tokenise your DNA. Figure that one out. So just because we've had these discussions before, and I want the viewers to understand what we're talking about here, if they tokenise the title of your house, that may or may not affect you. But the way it would affect you is, okay, so it's gone into a pool, an investment pool, and somebody purchased it and then defaulted. So somebody else wants that asset to cover that default. Well, you're going to wake up and find out that whoever just bought it to cover that asset, they're now in first position. They own your title, not you. Yeah. Just like stocks that are held on account at a stock brokerage firm, you are the beneficial owner of that stock, not the actual owner. So that if the brokerage firm gets in trouble, those assets are used as collateral to keep them solvent, and you don't have access, you may even lose those assets or have the right to sell them as the bank is basically using your collateral to stay afloat. So that's different than the mortgage, or sorry, that's different than CDIC guaranteed, where your bank deposits are guaranteed for $100,000. It's when the bank, and that's why brokerages have a million dollars of collateral against your stock holdings, so that your first million is covered, but people with $2, $3, $4 million have money at risk. And if you have money that's under that million dollars, it'll take a long time for you to get that money back because they don't pay out right away. So it's a real hassle. So yeah, you will lose access to your asset. And especially if it's tokenised, you don't know who owns it anymore. It's traded on a platform. Really what's happening is financial institutions are building up cash reserves to buy housing, to buy farmland. They're basically waiting for massive corrections in all the sectors so that they can go in and buy these assets up and then turn you into a servant, into a tenant of their asset is what's happening. That's why gold and silver gives you a seat at the table and a form of protection against that. Canada's housing market is collapsing under the weight of debt, inflation, rising mortgage renewals. Homeownership has become a financial trap with household debt at 180% of disposal income and property values stagnating nationwide. Condos, cottages, and single family homes are all under pressure as taxes, insurance, and refinancing costs surge. Consumer insolvencies are climbing, showing this is not a market correction but a structural collapse. At the same time, institutional investors are expanding into professionally managed rental markets backed by government incentives. This makes a permanent shift from private ownership to corporate controlled housing for investors. The opportunity now lies in tangible income producing assets. If you are interested in learning more about which private real estate offerings may benefit from the end of this, at the end of the show notes, you can contact me for detail. What's really happening is throughout this, you're seeing that there's a shift to see that personal ownership of homes, farms, whatever is on the way out and institutions are going to take over. One of the things is that the managed real estate portfolios like the multifamily rental properties, they are well financed by the government. They all have access to CMHC mortgages where they can get interest at 4% right now, whereas if you're going to be renting or owning a home, you're going to be at 6%. If you're a landlord and you want to, as a small investor, buy a couple of condos and rent them out, your mortgage rate is even higher than what your cost is so that the small operator can't compete. Even small rental businesses aren't going to compete. It's going to be the big guys. It's going to be the big multifamily companies that are well financed with cheap credits and that will survive, that will be in a position to buy up all these assets that are coming to fruition. However, there are companies like that that individuals can buy into. That's where the syndications that we offer through my partner, where we look at, and they're vetted, very well vetted, that they're strong, stable companies. They're the biggest property managers in Canada. They are in a position to be buying the weaker product. It's not doom and gloom for everything. There's always a shining light. Right now, I see the only strong point right now is in that sector. Commercial, real estate property managers, construction portfolios, all these different entities are in trouble because their segments are, their sectors are in trouble. The only bright spot in all of real estate is in the rental business with the larger companies that are well financed. Because so many people are pushed out of home ownership and are going to have to rent. Exactly. Even though we're hearing that the immigration trend in Canada is reversing, we're going to see a large wave. Now, there may be a lag there for a bit where people are not losing their homes as fast as say, maybe immigrants are leaving, but the longer term picture, and that's why Carney, Brookfield and all their cronies are getting into the multifamily space or getting into modular units. They're basically counting on everybody losing everything and then people become tenants of their product. Bryce, you're up. Well, my friends, this is a historic time in global finance. I'll tell you what. There's a lot of experts that I follow in our industry, not only to understand what's happening in my own industry, but also to understand what's happening with global finance and the global economy. One of the big stories right now is, one of the biggest stories right now is a massive silver squeeze. When I say massive, we're not talking like it's a big house, we're talking like this is the Taj Mahal of silver squeezes. This is a great tool for anybody that wants to keep track of what's happening with gold and silver. It's goldprice.org. I use this one a lot with clients, but it gives you a really good snapshot of a couple of really important things. (49:14 - 49:34) The price today, like I was saying, $4,200. Now, I'm going to show you an article in a mini here that was in September. We're in the middle of October right now. It was $3,700. Mid-September, whenever that article came out, it's now $4,200. It's gone up $500 in the space of a month. (49:35 - 50:05) The 30-day here, 12%, $450. That's just gold. These are all green for a reason. We're really seeing maybe not historic yet, but very historic times in the precious metals market. I want to direct your attention to silver because as I've been saying in previous updates as well, gold goes first, silver goes second, but it goes further and faster when it does. Now, we're starting to see the activation of silver, which I've been talking about for quite a while. (50:07 - 53:05) What's triggered this is there's been massive short positions on silver to hold down the price. A lot of the people in our industry were basically saying that $50 was the number that if we hit that number, there wasn't a lot of downward pressure after that, so the sky's the limit. Specifically, what's happening right now, this just got posted yesterday. This is one of the people that I follow. Apparently, this is fresh off the press news that China is now offering $128 per ounce of silver to purchase and to sell. This is a massive sea change. Silver in the West right now is $42. When I was reading stuff yesterday, I saw $58 an ounce in China. Now, literally, today I wake up and it's $120 an ounce. I don't know. I just saw this morning when I was looking at stuff. I don't know the mechanics of what's happening there, but if this is true, we could wake up in the next week at some point and it'd be $100 silver. It's like $50 right now. When I said that there is massive stuff happening in the silver market specifically, but in precious metals and the economy in general, this is not an exaggeration. This is not hyperbole. This is insane. One of the insane parts of this is the lease rates of silver, which are usually 1% or less, they're up at like 37%. One of the big things that's happening is the Perth Mint, the sovereign mints, the refiners, the distributors, there's all sorts of chaos all over the market right now. The London Bullion Association, the London Exchange, they are running out of silver. There's lots of traders that are trying to move silver into London to cover those positions. There's a lot of short sellers that now need to cover their positions. There's a huge amount of short positions on silver that happened in the last quarter or so, couple quarters. And now, because of all this chaos, they're having to rebuy the ounces that don't exist, because we're talking about literally hundreds of millions of ounces. There's a massive amount of buying pressure that's on silver right now. As I just showed you, if China is actually resetting the price, because it's the biggest market for precious metals, if they're resetting the price much higher, then we're going to see a huge amount of product go from west to east, and it's probably never coming back. China has already created an exchange mechanism called the Shanghai Cooperative Exchange, I think, SCE or SEO Cooperative Organisation. I can't remember the exact name of it. But basically, they created an exchange for countries to work outside of the dollar system, and the settlement is 40% gold. So they have been buying up gold and silver as much as they can get their hands on. Officially, unofficially, they've been mining it themselves. (53:06 - 58:48) And we're seeing a huge move of precious metals to the east for this reason, to support their intention to break away from the US western-led dollar system and the SWIFT system that can impose sanctions and do all these things we've seen happen over the last few years. So with this in mind, what is coming down the pipeline? If you're looking at this as an investor, or just somebody that wants to protect yourself from the things that are happening, you look at this and say, where is my money going to be best safe, or give me the best return? And I've said for years that, literally for years on your show here, that silver is one of the most undervalued assets in the world. And now we're starting to see that. And the reason for that is because silver is a much smaller market than gold. And if you put in a half percent of capital, let's say, if people moved from 1% of ownership of precious metals to 1.5%, that's a massive amount of money, right? And one of the other big things that's happening in parallel with all this is now the mainstream media is starting to wake up to this. They haven't gone full mainstream media yet, but the financial blogs and people like me and Andy Schekman that are like, gold, silver, gold, silver, gold, silver, we've been saying this for years now, right? But now the second level of people like Adrian, and the financial planners, and Morgan Stanley, this is what I was going to show. Morgan Stanley is right here. So Morgan Stanley, so this is a sea change. And maybe, Adrian, you can comment on this. So typically, the ratio that talked about in your portfolio was a 40-60 split, 40% bonds, 60% equities, bonds being safe, equities being where you made all of the big gains, right? And now Morgan Stanley is talking about a 60-20-20, which is 60% equities, 20% bonds, and 20% gold. So now we have kind of a new floor, because like I've said previously, 10% to 20% into precious metals. Well, now we're talking about 20% plus. And to give you an idea of how big the market is, like the bond market is somewhere in the neighbourhood of like $150 trillion, right? So $58 trillion goes into gold, like half of the bond market is now moving into precious metals, or at some point it will. Or we're talking about just a ludicrous amount of money moving into an very market that already has a massive amount of demand all over the planet. And so when I'm saying that there's a sea change in what's happening out there, this is a couple of hard number examples of what that is. So Adrian, could you comment on the reason for the 40-60 split and why this is so significant? Yeah. For those who read my book, It Starts With Gold, we have a tribute to a gentleman by the name of Harry Markowitz. He's the founder of a theory called Modern Portfolio Theory, where he developed a theory where if you build a portfolio 40-60, 60% is in equities and 40% is in gold. And by the way, just mentioning him, because Peter got to know him in his last days in San Diego. He lived in San Diego, and then he's now passed away. But he's the father of Modern Portfolio Theory. And for decades, all the brokers, mutual fund advisors, we all built portfolios. A balanced mutual fund would be 40-60, 60% equity, 40% in bonds. And then the pension fund started recognising earlier on before the retail industry that the 60-40 split is not going to continue on as interest rates continue to go lower and lower. And the reason that it used to work is as interest rates are declining, bonds do well, because as interest rates go down, bonds go up. With equities, as interest rates go down, corporations can refinance and generate higher income. That all worked perfectly well. And usually, stocks and bonds would do this. They will always move in opposite. Now that we've seen interest rates bottom out, we're in a rising interest rate environment. That model doesn't work anymore. So a lot of the more forward-looking pension funds started moving into alternative investments, private equity, private debt, private mortgages, et cetera. So then they started going 60-30, sorry, 40-30-30, 40 equity, 40 bonds, 30% in private assets. Not necessarily gold. That wasn't part of the formula at that point. So then you got, like Canada Pension now is close to 60% in privates. So they see the light. So they're light on the stock market, light on the bond market, heavy into privates. Now for Morgan Stanley to now say 20% in gold, because they're still in the business of managing stocks and bonds. So they don't want to take away too much from the stocks and bonds, but they're going all in instead of a diversified segment of private assets. They're just doing gold, because that's the only asset class that's really going to outperform the two other asset classes, which are going to underperform. So what they're doing is they're saying, we're putting a 20% bet on the rest of the portfolio. So even though the rest of the portfolio is crap, your gold is going to take over. So that's what's really what's happening. I'm already telling clients, and when I worked with the private portfolio manager, they have, that segment is going to be roughly 40% equity, 30% bonds, and 30% in privates already. (58:49 - 59:15) So they're already diversified. And then I'm telling clients to go as high as 20% or more in precious metals and another 20%. So you take that core portfolio that's already divided 40-20, 40-30-30, putting on, and look at that as your core, throwing in more than 20%, 10% to 20%, 30% in some cases of precious metals, and then private on the other side. (59:15 - 1:01:27) So I'm looking at pushing that total non-stock bond holdings over 50% with your look at what's already in the portfolio and then your precious metals. Now, some people will, instead of going 20-20, they'll go 40% and not do privates. They want to go to the gold because there's more upside, but there's more volatility in that side. But I'm moving more and more towards privates and precious metals, even with my client core holdings for the clients that are- And so just to polish off, this is the article that I was actually looking for, which is, so this was released on September 17th, so literally a month ago. Gold was $3,700 as of the day before this article. So we're talking about, at this point, they're talking about doing this, and as this is happening, the markets have moved so much. This is basically what happened in the 70s, which is all of this crazy inflation was happening, like we're seeing now, and there was a massive move into precious metals. And some people made a heck of a lot of money. And there's a lot of opportunity right now, while there's still time to get in. But like I was saying before, and to reiterate this point, the Royal Canadian Mint and the Perth Mint stopped production. So I read an article yesterday about this. Adding to the crisis, several foreign mints have announced rising premiums and reduced output, with lease rates so high, even producing new coins has become expensive. So the Royal Canadian Mint, which normally ignores lease rates in its cost models because it's like less than 1%, recently saw rates jump from 12% to over 100%. Some mints have already completed their 2025 production runs and are holding off additional output until financing conditions stabilise. And so one of the big stories that is a part of this is the entire supply chain of precious metals is now in absolute chaos. So people are moving metal all over the planet. People can't get financing because the lease rates are really high. The lease rate is basically how much you're charged for leasing it out to somebody else before it's replaced by somebody else. (1:01:28 - 1:01:46) So the refiners, the mints, the distributors, the wholesalers, the retailers, and like I was saying before, some of the retails are sold out. Because what if somebody comes in and just says, I'll take all you got, because I know it's going to be higher. We're lucky here at New World Precious Metals that we've got a really good supply and really good partners. (1:01:46 - 1:02:32) So we still have a really good supply. But I've been worried about this for years, which is at some point somebody is going to say, give me all you got. And you want to make sure that you have some in your portfolio before that happens. And like I've been telling other people, I just told my brother last week, I'm like, hey, man, you got to get into this like pronto before there's none left. Because I just bought a whole bunch last week. I'm going to be buying more at the end of the month. I'm probably going to buy everything that I can. Because at a certain point, we're going to hit a time when the only thing that you're going to be able to buy is what's coming out of the ground. And that's going to be scary. Because like I said earlier, the demand for silver specifically, because of its industrial uses, has absolutely skyrocketed. And there's what's known as demand destruction too. So I'll just briefly overview this. (1:02:32 - 1:02:47) So demand destruction is what happens when you have an asset. Any asset could be literally bread, it could be grain, it could be a house, it could be a car, it could be literally anything. So when that price of that asset is at a normal amount, let's call it $10 for the sake of argument. (1:02:48 - 1:05:23) Well, $10 is not too bad. But if it's $20, okay, it's doubled in price, but it's a low amount of money, I can still take $20. What if it's $50? What if it's $100? What if it's $500 and you have to buy a whole bunch of them on a regular basis? Well, now, that becomes cost prohibitive, and I'm not going to buy that anymore. I don't have the money for it, I'm not buying whatever that thing is. Which means that the demand for it craters, and then the price has to come down along with it. So there is a potential in some point in the future of demand destruction happening with silver on the industrial side. But because it's a monetary metal, and because it's also extremely important for electronics and military applications, I don't think that's going to happen in the same way that it could in other scenarios, because it'll just be bought up by all of the people that don't have enough. And like I've said previous too, this is still retail not waking up to this. Rick Rule, one of the people that I follow, a very intelligent person, highly recommend anybody that wants to learn more about this industry. Rick Rule is basically a genius in the industry. He's basically said that if retail, which is currently about 1%, goes to 2%, well, there's a literal doubling of all of the people that own precious metals currently. That hasn't even happened yet. So all of these insane things that I'm talking about today, this is all institutional, structural, and nation-state side stuff. So if at some point in the near future, which I think will eventually happen, retail does wake up, well, the real price of silver, the real price of gold is much, much higher than it is now. Because there simply isn't enough for everybody. And what you've just done, Bryce, is explain for people who have been very nervous about getting into precious metals at this point in time, because they're seeing these record high prices. And they're afraid the ride is over. But what you've just explained is that the ride is not over, and it's because the dynamics behind the price have changed. Historically, it's been like any asset where the value of it is what the market feels it's worth. But what you're talking about now is with the shortages that are coming, it's going to be determined by supply. And anytime there's a shortage of supply, price keeps going up. And so this is where we can look at this and say, well, it doesn't matter if up until three, four months ago, gold had never passed $3,000 an ounce. Now, it's $4,200 an ounce. Everyone's going, well, it can't possibly go any higher. Well, yes, it can, and it will, because there's a shortage of it. BRYCE GILLIAMS I watch videos about this all the time. He made the really good observation that the rule of seven. (1:05:23 - 1:11:32) So all of the other increases, the bull runs that we've had, have been like a 7x increase or more. So the one in 1970 to 1980 was about a 10 to 12. I think it was more than that, actually, because silver was really cheap, and it went up to like $40. But Mike Maloney basically said that the price of silver right now in 1980 dollars is like $12. So he did the math on this one. He's a really smart guy. I trust his math. So if we're saying that the real price of silver is like $12 roughly, and the highest ever in those dollars was like $42, sorry, $48, well, that's still a 4x increase from where it is now. And if you do the math for right now, that's like $200 silver. With all of the chaos that's happening, we could wake up very easily in a couple weeks, and silver's $100. Triple digits, I can't guarantee anything, but I look at trajectory, momentum, and history. If history repeats, we're looking at something like $300 silver. Peter Krauth makes the argument for that. There's people that are now talking about $200 silver in a few months because of all the chaos and the supply shortages. And as you just pointed out, if there's not enough for everybody, well, it's only the people that say, I'll give you this amount of money that get whatever the asset is. And if China is right now saying, I'll pay you $130, there's going to be a massive amount of people that are selling. And so my recommendation is don't sell yet because the real gains, the real price of silver that's out there somewhere, this is basically halfway through what we think is this bull run because these cycles are usually about 10 years. And so if we're about halfway through, and the majority of the gains happen near the latter end of that cycle because a lot of the run-up is positioning, and you're burning through what's just available, and nobody's really woken up to it yet. But we've had five years of silver deficit, something like 500 million ounces sold together in the last 500 years, deficit that has been burned away of the above-ground stocks. And so because 30% of silver is what stays in bullion, well, 70% is eaten up by industry, and it's gone. It's going into electronics. It's going into missiles. It's going into whatever it's going into. And so silver is a very, very unique metal that it has such a massive demand across all of these different verticals and industries, and there isn't enough. The amount of silver that comes from silver-only mines is only about 30%. So you can't scale it up. There isn't a lot of new mines coming online. So we only have the supply that we have. And you, as an individual, have a generational opportunity, basically. There was Bitcoin, there was Tesla, there was Google, there was Apple, there was NVIDIA. These are all generational opportunities that if you got in near the beginning, well, you made a lot of money, and you improved your wealth quite a bit. Well, this is one of those generational opportunities, in my opinion, because what we've seen historically is that there was the Brothers. Adrian, do you remember the name of the Hunt Brothers? The Hunt Brothers, exactly. And I actually met, interestingly enough, on a cruise, the broker that sold the Hunt Brothers their silver. Oh, really? I got the back-end story. His wife was enamorized. We had our little young daughter on the cruise, and we had dinner with them. So I got to know the whole story. Yeah, yeah. So what we're talking about, so the Hunt Brothers basically cornered the silver market and made a whole bunch of ridiculous amounts of money. Warren Buffett also did this in the 90s, I think. And there's been other people. JP Morgan did this. They bought a billion ounces or some ridiculous number. But what I'm saying is that you have the ability right now, you, person listening, you can still get into silver and make some significant amount of money because the trajectory is self-explanatory. We think that the real price of silver is much higher. Now, I can't obviously guarantee this. Consult Adrian if you want professional advice about financial portfolios and all this. But from us in our industry, we're looking at stuff that we've never seen before. These lease rates, the lack of delivery from London, the amount of silver that's moving all over the planet right now, the mints stopping production because of the back-end problems of liquidity, the lack of liquidity itself, this is unheard of in the industry. Things are broken. And when there's chaos, there is opportunity. And this is one of those opportunities. So I'll kind of leave off on this is that we haven't seen yet where the real price is because this is all still preamble to the actual emergency. We haven't hit the recession yet. We haven't hit all sorts of different problems that are happening in the world. But one thing is clear is that there is massive amounts of people that are in the know, like the insiders, the central banks, the nation states, they're all purchasing as much as they can get for a reason. Just want to add for your audience who's working with your traditional broker or bank advisor, and they're saying that gold and silver are already at peak prices. And it's not going to go higher because historically, when it gets to a peak price, you're going to see a correction. They don't understand what's really going on because they're not following the space. What's happening, what Bryce is explaining is that this is a structural change. So just because silver is now past its all-time high, I think about inflation, the current price is not an all-time high on an inflation adjusted basis. It's quite a bit lower. So we haven't reached all-time highs in adjusted for inflation. And because of what's coming and because of the structural change, we're at the bottom end of a long, long-term bull run in the commodity. Now, with any commodities, it's going to be cycles. There will be a point where it comes down, then it goes back up again. But the trend is fixed. The shortages are going to be there for years to come. And as things start to unfold and collapse, you're going to be wanting to own more and more precious metals, because that's the only asset class that's going to protect you against what's coming.