QUESTION: Good evening Martin,

Could the war possibilities the models are producing reflect civil unrest in multiple nations at once rather than a world war? Could today’s Jacobins be about to meet Mr Guillotine?

Thanks …

FA in Arkansas

ANSWER: This WWIII appears to be far more chaotic than WWI or WWII. There is a rise in tensions globally that is unrelated, as it is not orchestrated by a single entity. It appears that wherever there has historically been tension or conflict, it is resurfacing more like a contagion. Throughout history, this has led to significant changes, such as Rome overthrowing its king in 509 BC, establishing a Republic, and Greece adopting a similar approach by overthrowing its tyrants, ultimately giving birth to Democracy.

We also have a separate model defined as Civil Unrest, for this also builds in intensity and becomes revolutions erupting from domestic conditions. Both models tend to correlate with the ECM insofar as when the economy turns downward, that is when you see the most significant rise in civil unrest. Note that the Panic Cycle here is 2029. There was WWI, which led to the uprisings like the Russian Revolution in 1917 that grew out of unrest and a lack of CONFIDENCE in the government.

Compare the Civil Unrest model to the International War. They both show 2026 as key periods.  It will be this war that causes the overthrow of governments, just as took place in Russia with the overthrow of the Russian Tsar.

This is what 2032 is All About