(0:00 - 0:25) Good evening, I'm Will Dove, and these are the top stories for Tuesday, June 3rd. In tonight's news, the Canadian economy is doing better than expected, but for how long? The American housing market is showing signs of collapse. We provide an analysis on the risk to Canadian homeowners and buyers, and a major Australian COVID vaccine study is shut down with no explanation given while all data is erased. (0:27 - 1:06) Canada's economy showed stronger than expected growth in the first quarter, expanding by 2.2%, but troubling signs beneath the surface point to looming challenges as US-imposed tariffs under President Donald Trump begin to take effect. The tariffs, particularly the 25% levies targeting the automotive, steel, and aluminum sectors, have shaken longstanding trade relations with the United States and strained the interconnected supply chains built over decades. In addition, Trump's recent announcement of increasing steel tariffs to 50% will hit Canadian steel manufacturers hard, although no date for the increase has yet been announced. (1:07 - 1:36) Statistics Canada reported the quarterly growth was largely driven by an export surge, a response to American buyers rushing to purchase Canadian goods ahead of increased tariff costs. Exports, led by passenger vehicles and industrial machinery, rose by 1.6% in the first quarter, while imports also climbed. This boost in outbound shipments, however, is largely attributed to US companies stockpiling before the tariffs were fully in place rather than sustained demand. (1:37 - 2:01) Meanwhile, reneging on his promise to stand up to Trump on tariffs, Mark Carney quietly dropped tariffs on imported US goods for many Canadian sectors last month. The six-month pause reduces the tariffs for Canadian importers to effectively zero, especially in the manufacturing, processing, and food and beverage packaging industries. Despite the headline growth, underlying weaknesses have become apparent. (2:02 - 2:37) Household spending fell by 0.3% after rising in the previous quarter, signaling a frail domestic economy. Analysts such as Desjardins' Royce Mendez described the domestic demand as stagnant, pointing to a disappointing underlying growth rate even before factoring in the full impact of the tariffs. Andrew Hensich, a senior economist at TD Economics, echoed these concerns, stating that trade tensions and the uncertainty they heaped on the economy have started to show through on activity, with clear evidence of consumers pulling back on spending. (2:37 - 2:58) The Canadian economy's dependence on trade with the United States is stark. About 75% of all exports are destined for the US market, with Trump's administration having announced, then paused, several new levies on Canadian imports. The effect is already visible in the manufacturing sector, where tens of thousands of jobs were shed last month alone. (2:59 - 3:22) Preliminary estimates suggest the economy will only expand slightly in April, marking a sluggish start to the second quarter. Combined with rising unemployment, analysts see domestic demand as having all but petered out. The Bank of Canada is now facing a difficult decision on interest rates, with the central bank having paused rate cuts at 2.75% in April. (3:23 - 4:04) Economists like Nathan Janzen of RBC Economics predict a close call at the next rate announcement, but suspect that the weakness in domestic demand and the fading impact of previous rate reductions may provide room for further rate cuts, offering a bit more breathing room for the economy. Prime Minister Mark Carney, newly elected at the end of April, campaigned on a promise to transform Canada's economy with a focus on internal trade and energy. He now faces immediate pressure as auto manufacturers have already announced temporary production cuts, underscoring the vulnerability of one of Canada's largest industrial sectors in the face of US protectionism and flagging domestic demand. (4:05 - 4:40) As of April, the US housing market is grappling with a record-breaking $698 billion worth of homes for sale, a 20.3% surge from last year, according to a recent Redfin news analysis leading to concerns that Canada may follow. This unprecedented figure, the highest since Redfin began tracking in 2012, signals a dramatic shift toward a buyer's market. Nearly half of these listings, 44%, or $331 billion, are considered stale, lingering on the market for 60 days or more without a buyer. (4:41 - 5:02) This is a sharp rise from 42.1% a year ago, and the highest April share since the 2020 pandemic slowdown. The imbalance is stark. There are 500,000 more sellers than buyers, with 1.9 million homes listed versus just 1.5 million active buyers, the widest gap since 2013. (5:03 - 5:34) Several factors are driving this US market cool-down. Home-buying demand is waning as record-high monthly housing costs and economic uncertainty, fueled by tariff talks, layoffs, and policy changes, push buyers into wait-and-see mode. The median home sale price rose 1.4% to $431,931, while monthly payments hit all-time highs due to elevated prices and a 6.73% average 30-year mortgage rate. (5:35 - 6:04) Homes are taking longer to sell, with the typical sale now requiring 40 days, up from 35 days a year ago. Meanwhile, the easing of the mortgage rate lock-in effect has prompted more homeowners to list, as life changes like job shifts or divorces outweigh the reluctance to give up low-pandemic-era rates. Redfin's Matt Purdy, a Denver agent, notes a huge pop of listings this spring, with buyers backing out and sellers forced to lower prices. (6:05 - 6:47) Here at home, Canada's housing market tells a different story, at least for now. In April 2025, Canada had approximately 183,000 homes listed for sale, up 14.3% year-over-year, with an estimated total value of $124.3 billion, based on an average home price of $679,866 Canadian dollars or $490,600 US dollars, 13% higher than the average home price in the US. Unlike the US, where stale inventory is a clear issue, cross-country data on Canadian listings lingering for 60-plus days is unavailable. (6:48 - 7:31) However, regional insights, particularly from Toronto, suggest homes are selling faster, with an average of 33 days on the market, up from 28 days last year. Note that while the Toronto figure of 33 days on the market is lower than the current US days on market of 40, the year-over-year increase in Canada is higher, 17.8% versus 14.3%. Canada's market at present remains more balanced, however, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 47%, within the 40 to 60% range that signals equilibrium between buyers and sellers. This contrasts sharply with the US's seller-heavy market, where supply far outstrips demand. (7:32 - 7:59) However, Canadian home sales at 35,834 were down 7.5% year-over-year, reflecting some caution amid tariff uncertainties, but the market hasn't tipped into the oversupply scene south of the border, at least not yet. Regional variations exist. Ontario and British Columbia saw price declines, while Saskatchewan and Quebec reported gains, a result of diverse local dynamics. (8:00 - 8:30) Historically, the US and Canadian markets have shown some correlation, driven by shared economic factors like interest rates. However, Canada's market has historically been more volatile, with real home price growth of 142% since 2005, compared to the US's 26%, suggesting that our housing market is overpriced and due for a correction. Factors like high immigration and distinct policies, such as foreign buyer bans, have kept Canada's demand more resilient. (8:31 - 8:59) Given Canada's balanced market and shorter days on market, it's unlikely to mirror the US's high stale inventory soon, but if and when it does tip, it will likely happen fast. In addition, it is highly likely that Carney's globalist economic policies will eventually hit our own housing market. Should we see a major buyer's market, we can once again expect a rash of foreclosures as homeowners find themselves with mortgages exceeding the value of their homes. (9:00 - 9:44) Australia's Queensland Health has abruptly terminated the COVAX Safety and Efficacy Trial, COVAX-SET, a large-scale COVID vaccine safety initiative, sparking significant controversy among scientists, lawmakers, and study participants. The state government not only defunded the project in 2023 without explanation, but has now ordered the destruction of all biological samples and information collected, preventing any future access or analysis. COVAX-SET, launched with contributions from high-profile Australian research institutions, enrolled over 10,000 adults from 86% of Queensland's postcodes and compiled more than 100,000 biospecimens and 11 million separate data points. (9:45 - 10:15) The research was considered unique globally as it included both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, specifically featuring participants who received COVID injections, but never contracted the virus. The destruction order was announced in a letter to participants stating, there is no longer a scientific and public health need to retain these biological samples for future study. Critics, including Senators Gerard Rennick and Malcolm Roberts, condemned the move, calling it a blow to scientific transparency and accountability. (10:16 - 10:48) Senator Rennick highlighted the study's potential to address pressing questions about Australia's high excess mortality and long COVID rates despite extensive vaccination. With all physical samples sterilized and records archived but inaccessible, the decision effectively blocks any independent assessment of the COVID vaccine rollout in Australia and buries conclusions to be drawn from what had been one of the world's largest investigations into the vaccines. I'm Will Dove and those are the top stories for today, Tuesday, June 3rd.