Why Assassinations Fail In War | Armstrong Economics
QUESTION: Thank you, sir, for everything you do. You just wrote: “A major conflict can weaken a regional power or create a power vacuum. ” Being from the region, the fall of Saddam resulted in such a power vacuum, and we saw sectarian violence and the rise of ISIS. If Iran were to collapse, would this not create a nightmare in the Middle East? What is being reported is that Israel also wanted to assassinate the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. I think you said that killing the head of state is bad in war. I don’t remember where you said that. I think it was regarding Zelensky trying to kill Putin.
RV
ANSWER: Mr Trump’s policy to keep America out of foreign entanglements is being strained to the breaking point. If Iran’s regime were to fall, indeed, a corresponding power vacuum would emerge and could make the entire region extremely dangerous. This could drag the US into battle, but not with formal governments, but with ethnic clans. It would be difficult for America to remain neutral as rival powers also rushed to take advantage, assuming they stood by and did not prevent the fall of Iran. You don’t need much imagination to contemplate what would erupt also between shite, sunni, and even kurds in addition to the anti-Israel and anti-American sentiment that would erupt.
Just over two decades ago, when Iraq’s government was toppled, as the world celebrated, a power vacuum emerged. Then came immense, bloody upheaval. Terrorist groups, rather than national states, would not leave the Middle East in peace, but utter chaos. The West has been involved in Iran’s government for a long time. It was Mossadegh, who became Prime Minister of Iran, who nationalized the Iranian oil industry, expelling APOC/British interests. In 1953, CIA/MI6 Coup (Operation Ajax) orchestrated a coup to overthrow Mossadegh because he was leaning toward communism. This is precisely on our war model target, 72 years later, bringing us to 2025. This is highly dangerous.
The assassination of a head of state during wartime carries severe, often catastrophic dangers that frequently backfire strategically, politically, and morally. Killing the Supreme Leader will transform him into a martyr, which would most likely unify fractured populations and harden resistance against Israel and the West. For example, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand ignited WWI. Such assassinations often lead to surges in public support after the fact. The same took place with the assassination of Julius Caesar, stabbing him 23 times.
The assassination of the Supreme Leader would only result in a power vacuum and unintended consequences, resulting in global chaos. This could easily be taken as a religious war. Removing centralized authority can also fragment command structures, leading to warlordism, civil conflict, or extremist takeovers (e.g., Libya post-Gaddafi). This complicates peace efforts and the delivery of humanitarian aid. There would be nobody to negotiate peace with.
Such acts often provoke extreme retaliation—chemical, nuclear, or indiscriminate attacks. In 1942, Hitler ordered brutal reprisals after Reinhard Heydrich’s assassination, including the Lidice massacre, which was a brutal Nazi war crime committed during World War II in retaliation for the assassination (Operation Anthropoid) of the high-ranking SS official and key architect of the Holocaust on May 27, 1942. The retaliation took place on June 10, 1942. Lidice was a village in Nazi-occupied Czechoslovakia (now Czech Republic). Although Lidice had no proven connection to the attack, Nazis linked it to resistance activity based of coerced intelligence and all buildings were systematically demolished with explosives. The ruins were bulldozed, and the land was even salted to prevent regrowth as the Romans did to Carthage. Some 173 men (ages 15+) were executed on-site, while 19 women were sent to concentration camps and later executed. Some 198 women and children were sent to Ravensbrück concentration camp; most died from abuse, starvation, or gassing. 82 children were forcibly “Germanized” (given to SS families) or murdered in gas vans at Chełmno extermination camp. Only 17 survived the war. Lidice became a symbol of Nazi brutality and a rallying cry for resistance.
Removing the head of state cuts off all possible Diplomatic Pathways, which is why the neocons advise against communication with the enemy. Eliminating a leader destroys potential negotiation channels. Figures like Slobodan Milošević (Yugoslavia) were ultimately tried for war crimes—an option removed by assassination.
Perceived “tyrannicide” only fuels propaganda, recruiting insurgents against the assassin state. The U.S. killing of Qasem Soleimani (2020) intensified anti-American sentiment and Iranian proxy attacks. This does violate ethical and legal precedents. Both Zelensky and Israel would also violate all international norms (UN Charter Article 2(4) on sovereignty). This sets a highly dangerous precedent for extrajudicial killings, which in the end eroded global stability and removed all the rules of war, resulting in barbarism.
Unintended Successors
Replacement leaders may be more radical. Assassinating Julius Caesar ended the Republic and ushered in his heir, Augustus (27BC-14AD), as the first Roman emperor. Be careful for what you wish for, for you can end up with exactly what you are trying to prevent. Indeed, decapitation rarely ends wars—it typically prolongs or intensifies them. Stable resolutions require systemic change (e.g., institutions, treaties), not isolated strikes. As Sun Tzu warned: “Kill one, terrorize ten thousand.” The true cost is measured in cycles of vengeance and instability.
Israel’s targeted assassinations of the leadership in Iran may have the opposite effect. High-level families have been airlifted to Russia, anticipating Israel’s actions. Mohammad Pakpour, the newly appointed commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a stark warning in response to Israel’s strikes that killed former IRGC leader Hossein Salami. Pakpour vowed retaliation, saying, “In retribution for the blood of our fallen commanders, scientists and citizens, the gates of hell will soon be opened upon this child-killing regime.”
Israel has been trying to drag the US into this conflict just as Zelensky tried with Trump, but is now attempting to get NATO to also do a “re-emptive” strike against Moscow. Israel cannot eradicate Iran’s nuclear facilities, and that is dependent on bringing the US into the conflict. That is a huge gamble for Tel Aviv given the number of critics of US interventionism among the top ranks of Trump’s advisers. The American people are tired of endless wars. The US president himself has attempted to make reversing US interventionism a key part of his legacy.
Israel’s actions are already harming world economic interests by pushing global oil prices up and complicating relations with the Gulf states that have much to lose if the conflict disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
