Tories Face Test in May Local Elections Amid Reform Rise
The upcoming May local elections will serve as a significant test for the Conservative Party amid the rise of Reform UK, growing voter disenchantment, and shifting political allegiances, according to pollsters.
The elections, taking place across in 24 councils across England and five mayoralties, could indicate how deeply Reform is reshaping right-wing politics and whether the Tories can maintain their foothold at the local level.
Many of the seats up for grabs were last contested in 2021, when the Tories were riding high in the polls. However, compared to their performance five years ago—when they ended up in control of 63 councils—the party is now expected to suffer significant losses.
“We’re in a very different political context now and because the Conservatives performed exceptionally well in 2021, their expected losses will appear more dramatic,” Sophie Stowers, a researcher at the think tank UK in a Changing Europe, told The Epoch Times.
Launching the party’s local elections campaign in Buckinghamshire on Thursday, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch acknowledged that May elections “will be extremely difficult.”
“As I said earlier, these elections will be tough, but we are up for the fight.
“We are building a gold-standard campaign machine, but we need you and all our brilliant volunteers and supporters to get out and help. Every leaflet, every conversation, every vote counts,” she said.
Speaking at the Tories’ local election campaign launch, shadow communities secretary Kevin Hollinrake said the party has been “judged against the high watermark of 2021.”
Polls
A recent poll by Electoral Calculus puts the Conservatives on 25 percent of the vote, equal to Reform.
Nigel Farage’s party is expected to take control of Derbyshire, Doncaster, Durham, Kent, Lancashire, Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, and Staffordshire, of which six are currently held by the Conservatives.
“Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government,” said Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus.
Sir John Curtice, polling expert and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, agreed that the Tories are particularly vulnerable.
“It’s Tory seats and Tory votes that are primarily on the line because Labour are not defending very much in the local councils. Though Reform may also make it more difficult for Labour to pick up some seats,” he told The Epoch Times.
May mayoral elections will be held in areas including the West of England, Cambridgeshire, and Peterborough, as well as new contests in Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire.
“Here, it’s still going to be the case of Reform taking votes off the Tories. Where Labour isn’t hugely popular but still competitive, a fragmented right-wing vote could help them win. This is particularly important now that the supplementary vote has been scrapped,” Curtis said.
Delayed Elections
Under the government’s devolution reforms to local government, local elections in nine councils will be postponed until May 2026. This includes East Sussex, West Sussex, Essex, Thurrock, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Surrey.
Despite widespread challenges, delayed elections in some of these councils could soften the blow for the Conservatives.
Poll data show that the Conservatives might have lost six of these councils, had elections in those authorities not been delayed. Meanwhile, Reform might have gained a further four councils where elections are postponed.
“This will help reduce the number of seats the Tories could lose. Reform and the Liberal Democrats will be most frustrated by this, as they were poised to capitalise on Conservative weaknesses in these areas,” said Stowers.
Elsewhere, Reform is expected to perform particularly well in Lincolnshire, parts of Nottinghamshire, and Durham County, regions that had some of the strongest Brexit votes in 2016.
Bigger Picture for Reform
For Reform, the local elections are not just about winning seats, they represent a crucial test in establishing the party as a long-term force in British politics.
“Last May, Reform failed to stand in 88 percent of council seats. This year, we will stand in them all,” he said.
Farage announced 29 councillors had defected to his party, adding that “there are many, many more in the pipeline.” He also stressed the importance of building grassroots support to prove that “real votes exist on the ground.”
According to Curtis, a strong local party infrastructure is essential for Reform if it wants to survive long-term and move beyond being a protest party.
“It both enables you to be involved in local elections and gives you an activist space. If indeed Reform contests every council, then even as compared with the best of days of UKIP, it will be the first time that we’ve had a Eurosceptic party fighting local elections systematically,” he said.
Shifting Strategy?
While its manifesto includes policies on the NHS, education, and the economy, Reform is particularly vocal on immigration, post-Brexit governance, and opposition to net zero policies.
Analysts suggest that for Reform to expand beyond its core base of Brexit supporters and disenchanted Conservative voters, it will need to place greater emphasis on economic issues and the state of the NHS.
“Brexit supporters is a niche market. Reform will never get all of them because some of them will still vote Tory. If Reform wants to go beyond that, it will have to eat into Labour’s vote much more than they have done so far. This means steering away from Brexit and immigration,” said Curtis.
Stowers expects Reform may moderate its position slightly to appeal to a wider section of the electorate, apart from older, Leave-voting constituencies in the north and Midlands.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if they focus more on progressive taxation and tackling inequality, whilst also remaining quite conservative on immigration and net zero,” she said.
However, the battle over voters opposing green energy targets could become more challenging for Reform.
Speaking at the launch on Thursday, Badenoch was asked about the ideological differences between Reform and her party.
She said that, unlike Reform, the Conservatives focus on delivering concrete plans rather than making announcements.
“One of the things which I’ve been saying quite frequently—and I did in my speech on Tuesday when I launched our policy renewal programme—was that we don’t just make announcements, we have a plan,” she said.
Acknowledging public frustration with politicians who fail to follow through on their promises, Badenoch admitted that the Conservatives had “fallen foul of that from time to time.” However, she insisted that the party was now under new leadership and committed to rebuilding trust.
“This is not showbusiness. This is not a game. This is about people’s lives. This is not for us. It is for all those people out there who need credible politicians. That is what we’re offering,” Badenoch said.
