The fatal flaw in Trump’s grand strategy for the Middle East – LifeSite

Thu Jul 17, 2025 – 3:32 pm EDT
(LifeSiteNews) — In an age where Bannonite media strategy sees the Trump administration “flood the zone,” how can anyone hope to understand what is really going on in the Middle East? Alastair Crooke spent over two decades brokering negotiations between the Israelis and the Arabs. The former British diplomat returns to the airwaves with two interviews – and his analysis seems startling for two reasons.
Firstly, it contradicts the news – and secondly it presents a view of political power and state actions which seem to explain them much more accurately than the mainstream – or memestream – media.
Speaking to Iran’s Press TV, Crooke states bluntly that Israel lost the last round of war with Iran – and then adds it will certainly seek to attack Iran again. Crooke has in the past explained in detail how Israel wages multi-front war – information war to Western audiences, targeted assassinations, and of course direct military strikes with or without the U.S. giving permission.
Click here to watch the interview.
He also says in this revealing interview of July 5 that Israel will use the ceasefire with Iran as a “cover” – to prepare a fresh round of attacks, as it has done so in its campaign to destroy and depopulate Gaza. Crooke is telling you here that Israel’s cry for a ceasefire was sincere – they were suffering terrible damage and could not counter the incoming missiles – but that this ceasefire is a pause and not a precursor to peace.
The pro-life case against Israel
Why does all this matter to a Catholic or Christian audience? As Dave Smith told a mostly pro-Israel audience at TPUSA:
“If you support what Israel is doing to Gaza right now, my advice to you guys is that you never have a leg to stand on if you claim to be pro-life for the rest of your life.”
As a comedian, Smith is as used to hostile audiences as he is to telling difficult truths with a punchline. Yet there was no joke here. He responded to boos from the audience by asking:
“Oh, it’s okay to support a policy that is killing babies? All of a sudden killing babies is now negotiable. All right, fine.”
As Smith is likely aware, a wealth of evidence shows the Israeli army has intentionally targeted children – from U.S. and foreign doctors who have treated the dead and wounded, to the casualty figures themselves. On Tuesday the New York Times yesterday published its first article which described Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide. The piece, which reverses an in-house policy of refusing to mention the word, was written by an Israeli academic who studies genocide.
“I’m a genocide scholar. I know it when I see it,” said Omer Bartov, adding:
My inescapable conclusion has become that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian people. Having grown up in a Zionist home, lived the first half of my life in Israel, served in the I.D.F. as a soldier and officer and spent most of my career researching and writing on war crimes and the Holocaust, this was a painful conclusion to reach, and one that I resisted as long as I could. But I have been teaching classes on genocide for a quarter of a century. I can recognize one when I see one.
The breaking of the narratives of control is a feature of our time, as the old system disintegrates – revealing not only how power function through rule by media, but also the obscene machinery which it concealed. Crooke shows viewers a glimpse of how Israel operates regarding its putative enemies and allies, in the context of worsening international isolation. He also explains how the disastrous doctrine of regime change continues to ruin any plans for the renewal of America, and for the replacement of war with peace.
The blunders of hubris
Crooke’s second interview came on “Judging Freedom.” It sees the veteran analyst describe Trump’s posture on the Middle East as “hubris” – a name for an excessive pride which precipitates a fall in Greek tragedy.
Crooke begins by saying Trump was persuaded to strike Iran by a false belief – that Iran’s regime would change if the U.S. launched airstrikes.
In fact, says Crooke, the Iranian regime did not collapse – and proved resilient to the wave of assassinations which accompanied the air strikes. Crooke says the Iranians emerged with united resolve, disproving the premise which was presented to Trump.
Crooke adds that the attacks threaten to mobilize all Shia Muslims in a declaration of war on the U.S. and Israel – which would see, says Crooke, a civil war in Lebanon. What is more, adds Crooke, the whole situation is so “highly volatile” that we may see a resurgence of ISIS.
In summary, the bombings have triggered a chain of events which Crooke fears could destabilize the region, potentially unleashing a fresh wave of sectarian killing.
“This is not going to bring about the Abraham 2.0 solution” he said – referring to the expanded Abraham Accords proposed as a roadmap to peace by the Trump administration “this is going to create mayhem in the area.”
It is a situation which is seeing Sunni Islamic forces “showing allegiance to Iran.”
Crooke adds, “You have two wars going on in the Middle East. The war in Iran … and the war on Syria, Lebanon and Iraq as well.”
Completing the picture, Crooke says the U.S. initiatives on three other war fronts are failing.
“The Gaza summit in Washington did not produce a solution.” The attacks on Iran didn’t produce a solution – he says “it produced the opposite.”
Crooke says the U.S. grand strategy is failing, with no successes in negotiating peace in Ukraine nor in reaching understanding with the Chinese.
He concludes with the view that the U.S. was convinced “Iran was this house of cards” which would collapse, calling this mistake one of “the blunders of hubris.”
Crooke compares this to the view that Russia too was said to be on the verge of collapse and could be “carved up” after its easily arranged collapse – just as with Iran.
The view from Alastair Crooke is one coherent view of a disintegrating world order. It may not be welcomed, but it reduces to a warning – that the Trump administration risks destroying its own project entirely, if it continues to pursue the catastrophic fantasies of the regime change era it is struggling to escape. With the world “at a crossroads,” Crooke says change is coming. The question is – into what?