• Fed’s Waller (voter, dovish dissenter) said the time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance and he would support a 25bps cut at the September meeting and anticipates additional rate cuts over the next 3–6 months.
• Fed Governor Cook’s lawyers suggested an unintentional “clerical error” may have been behind the mortgage dispute over which President Trump wants her fired. It was separately reported that the judge in Fed’s Cook lawsuit set the hearing for this Friday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
• White House said US President Trump was not happy about the overnight strikes in Ukraine and will be making an additional statement on Russia and Ukraine.
• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data and earnings; European equity futures indicate a softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Jul), Import/Export prices (Jul), Unemployment (Aug) & CPI (Aug), French Prelim CPI (Aug), Spanish Flash CPI, (Aug), US PCE (Jul), University of Michigan Final (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP & Canadian GDP (Q2), ECB SCE, Speech from ECB’s de Guindos, Earnings from Alibaba.

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks edged higher in which the S&P 500 extended on record highs and the Nasdaq outperformed with tech, energy and communication services leading the gains following NVIDIA’s Q2 report, despite the Co.’s shares declining due to investors feeling underwhelmed by the data centre revenue figure, EBIT and revenue guidance.
• Nonetheless, semiconductors took the overall report as a positive and CEO Huang confirmed reports that they’re having talks with the White House on Blackwell chip sales to China, but noted it “will take a while”. Furthermore, there was a slew of data releases in which GDP growth for Q2 was revised higher, as was GDP sales, while Core PCE Prices printed slightly cooler than expected and jobless claims fell more than anticipated.
• SPX +0.32% at 6,502, NDX +0.58% at 23,703, DJI +0.16% at 45,637, RUT +0.19% at 2,378.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• USTR extended certain exclusions from China section 301 tariffs through November 29th, according to a statement.
• White House Trade Adviser Navarro said the global de minimis exemption will end on Friday, which will save American lives and that ending the de minimis loophole will restrict the flow of narcotics and other prohibited items, as well as defend against counterfeiting. Furthermore, it was stated that the end of the de minimis exemption will create thousands of US jobs and there will be a six-month transition period for postal shipments at flat rates, while there will not be any exceptions to end of de minimis exemption.
• Canada does not expect US President Trump to drop all his tariffs on the country, according to officials cited by FT.
• Brazil’s Vice President Alckmin said they plan to end negotiations for a complementary trade agreement with Mexico next June and plan to sign a complementary trade agreement with Mexico in August 2026.
• Japanese trade negotiator Akazawa said he will visit the US as soon as necessary arrangements have been made, while he added that he may need to visit the US at least one more time before a presidential executive order is issued.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Waller (voter, dovish dissenter) said the time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance and he would support a 25bps cut at the September meeting, and anticipates additional rate cuts over the next 3–6 months. Waller said he does not believe a bigger September cut is needed unless the August jobs report shows substantial weakening and inflation stays well contained, while Waller added that he wanted a rate cut in July and feels more strongly about it now.
• Fed Governor Cook’s lawyers suggested an unintentional “clerical error” may have been behind the mortgage dispute over which President Trump wants her fired. It was separately reported that the judge in Fed’s Cook lawsuit set the hearing for this Friday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
• FHFA Director Pulte sent a new criminal referral against Fed’s Cook, according to Bloomberg.
• US VP Vance said interest rates are too high and the Fed is not doing its job, according to a Fox News interview.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said capital markets are roaring back and companies are taking calculated risks, spending, and pursuing deals in this economy.
• White House said the details of the Intel (INTC) deal are still being ironed out.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data and earnings.
• ASX 200 traded rangebound as strength in tech and energy was offset by losses in real estate, healthcare, industrials and financials, while stock headlines in Australia continued to be dominated by a busy earnings slate.
• Nikkei 225 weakened after a slew of data releases, which were ultimately mixed, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained following another substantial liquidity injection by the PBoC of around CNY 783bln and with Beijing authorities recently vowing support measures, while the spotlight is also on incoming earnings including from Alibaba and Chinese banks.
• US equity futures took a breather after the prior day’s gains and as markets now await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, whilst the US sees a long weekend due to Labor Day on Monday.
• European equity futures indicate a softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY eked modest gains after softening yesterday alongside a lower yield environment and despite the several encouraging data releases stateside including the upward revisions to headline US GDP and GDP Sales for Q2, while Core PCE Prices were revised lower and jobless claims fell. Nonetheless, the data had little impact on the dollar amid tentativeness ahead of Fed Governor Cook’s hearing and the with Fed’s preferred monthly PCE data due later, while there were comments from Fed’s Waller who stuck to a dovish script as he noted the time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance and he would support a 25bps cut at the September meeting, as well as anticipates additional rate cuts over the next 3–6 months.
• EUR/USD gradually eased back from Thursday’s peak after recent upward momentum in the single currency was thwarted by resistance near the 1.1700 level and as the attention turns to a slew of data incoming from the bloc including German, French and Spanish consumer inflation.
• GBP/USD was stuck near the 1.3500 focal point, where it had oscillated around throughout the prior day amid light pertinent catalysts for the UK, although there were reports that PM Starmer plans a cabinet shake-up and is expected to appoint a new economic advisor ahead of the Autumn Budget.
• USD/JPY lacked direction as participants digested several data releases from Japan which were ultimately mixed.
• Antipodeans remained afloat after recent advances and as the PBoC continued to strengthen the yuan reference rate setting.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1274 (Prev. 7.1063).

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures paused after yesterday’s intraday recovery and curve flattening ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
• Bund futures were little changed ahead of a slew of data from Germany including CPI, Retail Sales & Unemployment data.
• 10yr JGB futures pared some of the recent gains with demand contained after a mixed bag of data releases including Tokyo CPI which mostly matched estimates and Unemployment Rate surprisingly declined, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures pulled back after gaining yesterday owing to geopolitics on what was otherwise a choppy performance.
• Spot gold faded some of the prior day’s advances after ascending above USD 3,400/oz amid a softer dollar and yields.
• Copper futures held on to recent spoils and lingered around the prior day’s best levels owing to the positive mood in its largest buyer, China.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was pressured overnight and prices retreated back beneath the USD 112k level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China state planner spokesperson said they are aware that household consumption capability and confidence need to be improved and aware that companies competition has intensified. The spokesperson added that China will study further increasing support from the central government to reduce funding pressure for local governments for people’s livelihood projects and will investigate dumping cases, misleading promotions, and improve governance of disorderly competition. Furthermore, China is to push for reducing R&D costs for AI innovation and will innovate methods to subsidise AI product purchases.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Brazil’s Foreign Minister and said China is willing to strengthen strategic mutual trust with Brazil and strengthen mutual support, while he added that China is willing to strengthen coordination with Brazil and work with BRICS countries to resist unilateralism and bullying.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Industrial Production MM (Jul P) -1.6% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 2.1%)
• Japanese Industrial Production YY (Jul P) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. 4.4%)
• Japanese Retail Sales YY (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.0%, Rev. 1.9%)
• Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jul) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
• Tokyo CPY YY (Aug) 2.6% vs Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.9%)
• Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food YY (Aug) 2.5% vs Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.9%)
• Tokyo CPY Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Aug) 3.0% vs Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said France, Germany and the UK have no legal jurisdiction to trigger automatic re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, while he added Iran is ready to resume diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear program, provided that other parties demonstrate seriousness and goodwill. Furthermore, he said in a letter to the EU foreign policy chief that any E3 efforts to revive UN Security Council resolutions that were terminated under Resolution 2231 are invalid and ineffective.
• Deputy Russian UN Envoy said E3 move on Iran at UN has no legal bearing and does not think the Security Council should act on the E3 move, while Russia and China have not yet requested a UN Security Council vote on their draft resolution.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• German Chancellor Merz said there will be no meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky.
• White House said US President Trump was not happy about the overnight strikes in Ukraine and will be making an additional statement on Russia and Ukraine.
• European leaders are said to be mulling a 40 kilometer buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian frontlines as part of a peace deal, according to POLITICO. Officials disagree how deep the actual zone could be and it’s unclear Kyiv would accept the plan as it would likely come with territorial concessions. The US is seemingly not involved in these discussions. French and British forces will likely make up the core of the foreign troop presence.

OTHER

• Venezuela’s UN envoy said Venezuela complained in a letter to UN chief Guterres about a US naval buildup, while the envoy added that the US naval deployment violates the UN charter and Venezuela does not constitute a threat to anyone. Furthermore, the envoy said the real threat to regional stability is the US military and nuclear weapons presence in the Caribbean. It was later reported that Venezuela’s President Maduro said there’s no way the US can enter Venezuela, and that Venezuela has support from China, Russia, and India.