Polls say Poilievre is sinking – but Canadians are showing up for him in record numbers – LifeSite
(LifeSiteNews) — In mid-January, with Justin Trudeau dragging the Liberal Party down to record low polling levels of 16 percent (and, stunningly, outperforming his party with a mere 24 percent popularity rating), it appeared clear that Pierre Poilievre would be Canada’s next prime minister.
Then, the Liberal Party initiated an emergency plan: Trudeau prorogued Parliament to avoid a vote of non-confidence and announced his resignation pending a Liberal leadership race to replace him. Mark Carney won with an overwhelming majority on March 9, and became Canada’s 24th prime minister on March 14. In the meantime, Donald Trump had announced onerous tariffs on Canada and repeatedly boasted about annexing the country entirely.
Overnight, the race changed. The ballot box questions – at least, according to pollsters and commentators – changed from affordability and Trudeau, which had given Poilievre his edge, to the best man to push back against the Trump administration in a potentially devastating trade war. Carney soared in the polls, and Poilievre plunged. An Ipsos poll from March 14-17 put the Liberals at 42 percent and the Conservatives at 36 percent among decided voters. On April 6, Ipsos showed the Liberals with a 10-point lead.
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Worse for the Conservatives, Carney consistently outperforms Poilievre as a preferred choice for prime minister, with a CTV-Globe and Mail-Nanon poll putting Carney at 47.4 percent and Poilievre at 34.4 percent, which is actually a slight increase from earlier polls.
Poilievre was the perfect foil for Trudeau, but Carney is a bland banker who, despite being Trudeau’s top economic advisor who is leading Trudeau’s team and holds views easily as radical as Trudeau’s on nearly every key issue, apparently appears to many Canadians as a steady, Harper-like figure.
In short, with less than two weeks to go, the Conservative campaign looks to be in trouble. The Canadian commentariat, which has clashed with Poilievre since he became leader and likely fear the end of their subsidies should he win (at a minimum, he has consistently promised to defund the CBC), smell blood and are reporting his future demise with barely concealed glee. Based on the current numbers – which do not appear to be moving much – it is easy to see why.
But there is one indicator that April 28 might bring a surprise: The rallies.
I have been to many political rallies in Canada – my first one was a Stockwell Day rally in BC back in 2000. But Poilievre’s draw, from coast to coast, has been massive. In Hamilton, Ontario, on March 25, the Conservative leader drew 4,500 people at a building manufacturer. In Surrey, British Columbia, over 5,000 showed up to see him two days later. Near the Winnipeg Richardson International Airport on March 30, well over 3,500 people showed up at a rally.
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The crowds continued to grow through April. In what constitutes a massive turnout for the island, 1,700 showed up at a rally at Borden-Carleton on PEI on April 2. On April 3, in Oshawa, 6,500. In Kingson the same day, 3,000. In Penticton, on April 5, at least 3,000 – at least a tenth of the city’s population according to the National Post. At a barn-burner event in Edmonton, between 12,000 to 15,000 people showed up – as did former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who offered his public endorsement.
Rallies of this size are incredibly unusual in Canadian politics, and they are an indication that Pierre Poilievre – and his nationalist, “Canadian dream” campaign – is striking a chord that the polls may be missing. Every political commentator should remember that the polls were wrong and Trump’s rally sizes were right in 2015-16.
But a note of caution for enthusiastic Conservative supporters is in order, as well. Andrew Scheer won the popular vote in 2019, and Erin O’Toole won the popular vote in 2021 – but the Liberals won more seats, and Justin Trudeau remained prime minister. Pierre doesn’t just need votes – he needs the right votes in the right ridings.
Jonathon’s writings have been translated into more than six languages and in addition to LifeSiteNews, has been published in the National Post, National Review, First Things, The Federalist, The American Conservative, The Stream, the Jewish Independent, the Hamilton Spectator, Reformed Perspective Magazine, and LifeNews, among others. He is a contributing editor to The European Conservative.
His insights have been featured on CTV, Global News, and the CBC, as well as over twenty radio stations. He regularly speaks on a variety of social issues at universities, high schools, churches, and other functions in Canada, the United States, and Europe.
He is the author of The Culture War, Seeing is Believing: Why Our Culture Must Face the Victims of Abortion, Patriots: The Untold Story of Ireland’s Pro-Life Movement, Prairie Lion: The Life and Times of Ted Byfield, and co-author of A Guide to Discussing Assisted Suicide with Blaise Alleyne.
Jonathon serves as the communications director for the Canadian Centre for Bio-Ethical Reform.
