The ‘soft’ data decoupling from strengthening ‘hard’ data just went to ’11’ as this morning’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey results were in a word – atrocious.

While Current Production remained positive, manufacturers in the Dallas Fed region have a dour outlook for business activity ahead (printing -35.3, below the lowest analysts expectation)…

Stagflationary trends persist under the hood as New Orders plunged as Prices Paid surged:

The respondents all had one thing on their minds – tariffs!

• “This has been a crazy few weeks in the news.”

• “There is really no way to predict anything accurately six months out or even six weeks out now for our industry due to the tariff and trade uncertainty.”

• “President Trump, tariffs and maximum business uncertainty [are issues affecting our business]. [We see a] probable recession soon.“

• “There is no stability in business, so it is difficult to plan. “

• “The current economic environment is confusing. President Trump keeps things in turmoil, and we do not know what he will do next. “

• “Tariffs and tariff uncertainty are wreaking havoc on our supply lines and capital spending plans.”

• “Due to tariffs, we do not know what to expect.“

• “There is too much uncertainty all over for any increases [in business] soon.”

• “Tariffs may drive us out of business.”

• “Tariffs. Tariffs. Tariffs. There was a better way to do this.“

• “The tariff issue is a mess, and we are now starting to see vendors passing along increases, which we will have to in turn pass along to our customers. Because of this, we are very concerned about general business activity for the next six to nine months or until these trade agreements get worked out.”

DOGE was also mentioned:

“Chaos at the federal level, tariffs and resulting raw ingredient costs, decimation of partner relationships due to canceled contracts “for convenience” along with stagflation concerns [are issues affecting our business]. 

DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] is needed.

The DOGE without a follow-up plan does nothing for the domestic tranquility needed (stable arena for business to function within).“

And finally, one respondents reached out to The Fed directly for relief:

“Please lower interest rates. We need it in order to boost the economy due to the uncertainty and tariffs.”

“There is too much uncertainty, including a possible recession. Interest rates are too high. The Federal Reserve always seems to be late for their own party.“

Interestingly, these responses were receiuved AFTER the ‘pause’ on reciprocal tariffs were announced (and stocks rebounded from post-Liberation Day lows).