An analysis of CERES data from 2001 to 2019 suggests that the biggest factor in global warming since 2001 is a reduction in sulphur dioxide (SO₂) pollution and not an increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere. 

Researchers from the University of Exeter have found that a reduction in atmospheric SO₂ has caused clouds to become darker, resulting in less solar radiation being reflected into space, leading to global warming.

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At the Exeter Climate Conference earlier this month, University of Exeter researchers Professor Peter Cox and Margaux Marchant presented their initial findings of their analysis of CERES data, the New Scientist reported last week.

Peter Cox is Professor of Climate System Dynamics in Mathematics and the Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.  He is a lead author on the 4th, 5th and 6th Assessment Reports of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) and a member of the UK Government’s Defra Scientific Advisory Council.

Since 2001, satellite instruments known as CERES have been measuring the amount of sunlight that is reflected into space compared to the amount that is absorbed by the Earth. These measurements indicate a decline in the planet’s albedo, the Earth’s ability to reflect solar radiation. As a result, the Earth is becoming darker, leading to additional warming.

There could be several reasons for the decrease in the Earth’s albedo, including reductions in snow, sea ice and cloud cover. However, Cox and Marchant’s analysis of the CERES data from 2001 to 2019 indicates that the most significant factor is that clouds are becoming darker.

“It is known that sulphate pollution from industry and ships can increase the density of droplets in clouds, making them brighter or more reflective. This is the basis of one proposed form of geoengineering, known as marine cloud brightening,” New Scientist said.

Adding, “But these emissions have been successfully reduced in recent years, partly by moving away from high-sulphur fuels such as coal.  So, Marchant and Cox looked at whether the decline in cloud brightness corresponded with areas with falling levels of SO₂ pollution, and found that it did.”

“Two-thirds of the global warming since 2001 is SO₂ reduction rather than CO₂ increases,” Prof. Cox said.

Laura Wilcox at the University of Reading in the UK, who wasn’t involved in the study, was encouraged by Cox and Marchant’s findings but said there were limitations on the datasets used, such as the data on SO₂ pollution being updated since the analysis was conducted.

Wilcox also noted two recent studies^[1] that suggested the darkening is mainly due to a reduction in cloud cover, rather than darker clouds. “The drivers of the recent darkening trends are a hotly debated topic at the moment,” she said.

However, she said that her own research supports the conclusion that the recent acceleration in global warming has primarily been driven by the decrease in air pollution, and this effect is likely to be temporary.

Related: Dramatic cuts in China’s air pollution drove surge in global warming, New Scientist, 31 March 2025

References:

• ^[1] Oceanic cloud trends during the satellite era and their radiative signatures, Springer Nature Link, 18 August 2024
• ^[1] Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000, Springer Nature Link, 7 May 2024

Featured image taken from ‘Albedo Values’, My NASA Data

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