March US Consumer Prices Fall Most In 5 Years
The normally crucial consumer price index measure of inflation printing today for March is likely to take a back seat to the next red flashing headline on tariffs on everyone’s Bloomberg terminal, but under the hood – with the Trump Put now exposed – can a cooler than expected CPI print raise the Powell Put strike enough to enable a true tradable bottom here?
Having dipped lower in the previous month (following a few straight months of re-acceleration), expectations were for both headline and core measures to continue trending lower on a YoY basis… and they were.
Headline CPI FELL 0.1% MoM (vs +0.1% exp), which dragged the YoY CPI to +2.4%, matching the September lows…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the weakest MoM print since May 2020.
Core CPI also printed cooler than expected (+0.1% MoM vs +0.3% MoM exp), pulling the YoY print down t0 +2.8% YoY – the lowest since March 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Services inflation tumbled…
Source: Bloomberg
While goods inflation is flat (zero-ish), services cost inflation is fading fast…
Source: Bloomberg
The so-called SuperCore CPI – Services Ex-Shelter – dropped 0.1% MoM dragging it down to +3.22% YoY – the lowest since Dec 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Drill Baby Drill (and tariffs recession fears) have dragged energy prices lower and pulled CPI lower with it…
Source: Bloomberg
But, but, but… Democrats at UMich said inflation would explode because Orange Man Bad?
Loading…
