The Telegraph has a story claiming that a UK Health Security Agency report says catching Covid and the effects of lockdowns have caused a doubling in the risk of dying from cold weather in just five years. However, let’s start with the Government’s own page about the cold mortality report, which covers 2024–2025:

Findings from the report show that 2,544 deaths were associated with cold weather across three cold episodes recorded between November 2024 and January 2025. The most severe episode, a six-day period in early January, accounted for 1,630 deaths, while shorter episodes in November and early January were associated with 421 and 493 deaths respectively.

Other key findings from the report include:

• older people were most affected, with the risk rising steeply with age, especially in those aged 85 and over
• men had a higher number of cold-associated deaths (1,439) than women (1,117)
• circulatory diseases caused the highest number of cold-related deaths, with 834 deaths linked to conditions such as heart disease
• most deaths (975) happened in hospitals, although the increase in risk during cold weather was greater for people in care homes and those who died at home

The report found that mortality peaks around five days after cold weather and remains elevated for up to nine days. Heart-related deaths tend to increase several days after cold exposure, while respiratory and infection-related deaths show longer delays.

The Telegraph homes in on the possibility that Covid is a principal culprit:

Dr Ana Raquel Nunes, of the University of Warwick, said: “COVID-19 may have contributed indirectly by increasing cardiovascular and respiratory risk, and frailty in some individuals.”

The virus can cause scarring of the lungs and reduce the organ’s ability to function, leading to breathlessness, chest pain and fatigue. It has also been linked to a higher risk of heart attacks and heart failure.

Decreased immunity levels caused by under-exposure to bugs during Covid lockdowns have also been tied to the uptick in cold-related deaths following the pandemic.

“In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, many people had lowered natural immunity and were more susceptible to catching infections during colder months,” said Dr Andy Whittamore, the clinical lead at Asthma and Lung UK.

In fact, the Government introductory webpage mentions Covid just once, and that’s only in connection with “monitoring of flu, COVID-19, RSV, norovirus and other seasonal pressures, helping to ensure that Cold Weather Alerts and preparedness planning reflect the real health risks faced by vulnerable groups”.

It’s necessary to turn to the full report itself (which you can read here) to find out how much Covid and lockdowns are blamed:

Several factors may help explain this change. One influence may be increased population vulnerability, including an ageing population, with higher rates of chronic diseases which can put people at risk during cold weather. Changes in resilience after the COVID-19 pandemic, inequalities and respiratory disease patterns may also contribute. Other factors identified in the Adverse Weather and Health Plan supporting evidence document which can influence cold-associated mortality include: home insulation and heating, access to healthcare, protection from seasonal infections through vaccination, and awareness of cold weather risks.

Lockdowns go unmentioned, and the potential culpability of Covid is treated circumspectly. It’s not entirely clear then why the Telegraph opens its story with “Covid lockdowns and infection with the coronavirus have made British people more likely to die in cold weather.”

However, neither the Telegraph nor the UKHSA report confront the fact that since Covid the cost of heating homes has risen dramatically. If we turn to a House of Commons Library Research Briefing, we find that:

Wholesale energy prices increased rapidly from the second half of 2021 and much of 2022. Many consumers were protected, at least initially, by the energy price cap. However, the price cap increased by 54% in April 2022 and Ofgem planned to increase it by a further 80% on October 1st 2022.

The Week published a piece last September about why Britain’s electricity prices are amongst the highest in the world:

The short-term cause is the Ukraine War. The average household “duel-fuel” bill (of which electricity makes up a bit more than half) went from around £1,200 per year in 2020 to £3,549 in October 2022, then down again, before creeping up to £1,720 now. The underlying causes are complex: they include an ageing national grid; high network operating costs; a lack of storage; and the practicalities of being on an island (in Europe, electricity can be transmitted to where it’s needed more easily). Finally, there are “policy costs”: levies to support green energy and vulnerable customers. Of a typical electricity bill, under Ofgem’s price cap (the highest tariff providers can charge), about 20% consists of network costs; 15% is the energy supplier’s costs; 11% is policy costs; 5% is VAT and suppliers’ profits are 2.4%. But the biggest chunk, around 45% of a bill, is the wholesale cost of energy, which is largely dictated by the price of natural gas, which is both high and volatile, for reasons beyond government control.

There isn’t any alternative apparently:

In the UK, gas-powered plants are the only practical means of topping up the grid during a sudden shortage. Nuclear reactors can’t quickly be switched on and off; wind and solar are intermittent, and we can’t yet store enough of their output. For now, the only way to be sure of keeping the lights on when there’s a surge in demand involves gas.

And, big surprise, “renewables” cost a lot more than they’re supposed to:

In theory, the green part of “policy costs” comprises under 10% of our electricity bills. But the true price is much higher. Connecting the grid to wind and solar farms is expensive, as is back-up and grid-balancing. In 2024/25, about £2.7 billion was spent balancing the grid – for instance, paying wind farms to “curtail” generation when the system was overloaded. Besides, high gas-derived prices often govern real renewable prices anyway. The UK relies heavily on gas, because it got rid of coal-fired stations. Marginal pricing means gas set the price of electricity 98% of the time in Britain in 2023, compared with the European average of 58% (in France, prices are mostly set by cheaper nuclear, and in Poland, by coal).

Which takes us back to people dying of cold in Britain at double the rate they were before Covid. Another Commons research briefing tackles the rising cost of living:

The cost of living increased sharply across the UK during 2021 and 2022, affecting the affordability of goods and services bought by households. The annual rate of inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, a 41-year high, before subsequently easing over the subsequent 18 months.

The Telegraph’s story is then slightly unsatisfactory to say the least, though it does cite a “Dr Nunes” who opined:

“What we are likely seeing is increased population vulnerability driven by ageing, frailty, chronic disease and living conditions, rather than people becoming inherently less tolerant to cold.

“Cold exposure places significant strain on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, and protecting vulnerable populations through adequate housing, healthcare access and public health preparedness remains essential.”

Covid itself appears to be a red herring. Britain has an increasingly ageing population, with more and more of that demographic struggling to pay for heating and a nutritious diet, and to obtain reliable and timely healthcare as the cost of living continues to rise and public services deteriorate.