(LifeSiteNews) — Sociological insight points to a serious danger threatening Argentina: demographic winter.

Births in our country dropped from 777,012 in 2014 to 460,902 in 2023; the birth rate in those years fell from 18.2 per thousand to 9.9 per thousand. This population crisis is due to declining nuptials, marriages and first births at a late age, declining birth and fertility rates, and the consequent aging of the population.

The data reveals a political problem: “to govern is to populate.” The expression is attributed to Juan Bautista Alberdi, though he was referring to immigration. If we were to continue to accept and attribute some value to it, we would have to translate it: “to govern is to ensure more babies are born.” This is not at all simple, because the meaning of the family has changed, courtship has become early cohabitation, and the use of contraception has become widespread. Even the memory of Humanae vitae has been lost.

Faced with this dire situation, the Argentine bishops do not say a word. They seem to live in the stratosphere per usual. Their silence is deafening. Accustomed to their “centrist extremism,” they avoid any firmness on life and family issues since they consider them “right-wing.” Their focus is on “social issues.” And so it goes. Not even the skyrocketing closures of kindergartens, daycare centers, and maternity wards makes them react.

The danger of demographic winter threatens more than a few countries. In Europe three out of four households are childless. Forty years ago, St. John Paul II prophetically said that “the Europe of the 21st century will be Christian, or it will not exist.” The truth is that it will not be Christian; it will rather be Muslim.

In the United States, the fertility rate has reached an all-time low. It is a great country, admirable for many reasons, beginning with its expanse from the Atlantic to the Pacific. It is also because wheat and tares grow equally there. The spread of contraception and abortion, no longer as bloody as in the past, is undeniable.

But a “pro-natalist” community promoting larger families has recently emerged. “In this room we’re going to fix the declining birth rate,” said dating app entrepreneur Amanda Bradford, in an Austin, Texas, hotel conference room. She was expressing concern about how to persuade Americans, specifically American women, of the desirability of more children. Interestingly, other speakers were scheduled to participate, as noted by economist and father of four Bryan Caplan, “but they all got pregnant.”

The religious aspect of the question should not be overlooked. The Creator’s command is expressed at the beginning of the book of Genesis: “And God created man in his own image, in the image of God created he him; male and female created he them. And he blessed them, saying to them: ‘Be fruitful, multiply, fill the earth and subdue it’” (Gen 1:27-28).

The aforementioned encyclical of Paul VI brings together arguments from natural reason and the unchanging doctrine of the Church. Grace and sin either illuminate or obscure the conduct of men and women.

+ Héctor Aguer
Archbishop Emeritus of La Plata

Buenos Aires, Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Our Lady of Itatí