Centre-Left Labor Party Wins Australian Election, Opposition Leader Loses His Seat
In a result that mirrors that of the recent Canadian election, the Australian centre-right opposition has lost the election, and its leader, Peter Dutton, has lost his own seat.
With over 80 percent of first preference votes counted, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), which had endured declining popularity over the last year, is leading in 77 electorates and narrowly ahead in another 4.
The Liberal-National Coalition leads in just 29 and is running a close race in another 10. Independents are ahead in 9, and may take one more.
For Australia, this will be the first time a prime minister has won a second term since 1998.
All 150 seats in the House of Representatives were on the line, and 40 of 76 Senate seats.
Widely predicted to be a tightly contested race, with cost-of-living pressures, affordable housing, and energy policy dominating the campaign, the ALP managed to turn around its fortunes in the last few months.
The ALP is projected to win 86 seats in total, up from the 77 it held at the previous election. To form government a party needs to win 76 seats.
The Coalition will be cut from 58 seats to just 40, and another 10 will go to independents (including the “Teals”), and none to the Greens.
However, there’s as yet no results from Western Australian (WA) seats as the polls closed later than on the east coast due to the time difference. However, WA at present is very much a red state and has re-elected a string of state ALP governments, so is likely to cement Labor’s national victory.
Labor Sweeps Marginal Seats Too
Labor has also held every one of its marginals, while winning most of the marginal seats previously held by the Coalition: Deakin, Bennelong, Sturt, Bass, Banks, Leichhardt, and Petrie.
The scale of the victory is illustrated by the seat of Bennelong, once a blue-ribbon Liberal stronghold represented by former Prime Minister John Howard, redistribution turned it into the most marginal of Labor seats, held until now by Jerome Laxale with a margin of just 0.04 percent.
But Laxale recorded a huge swing of 10.3 percent against the Liberal Party’s Scott Yung, turning blue to a deep red despite the Liberal Party pouring huge resources into trying to take the seat.
It’s also evident in Hughes, a seat the Labor Party hasn’t held for almost 30 years. There, the ALP’s David Moncrieff is expected to defeat the 8.9 percent margin of the Liberals’ Jenny Ware.
Such was the rejection of the opposition that in the traditionally conservative rural heartland seat of Calare, deserting his party and standing against them—often frowned upon by voters tired of internal politicking—didn’t affect newly minted independent Andrew Gee. He managed to defeat his replacement as Nationals’ candidate, Sam Farraway, with a 23.2 percent swing.
Results of that magnitude are being repeated across the country, with a national swing toward the ALP of at least 4 percent.
Opposition Leader Loses His Seat
The most painful defeat of the Liberal-Nationals, though, must be Dutton’s seat of Dickson, which has gone to the ALP’s Ali France with a 9.3 percent swing. A situation mirrored in Canada with the defeat of Pierre Poilievre.
Dutton was challenged by a concerted campaign from Labor, but also a Teal independent.
With most people, including pollsters and politicians, predicting a close race, albeit with Labor slightly ahead and likely to form a minority government, the result was unexpected. While the final results will change once early votes and those from Western Australia are counted, it’s clear Labor will have a majority in Parliament.
And if support for the party is reflected in voting for the Senate—the results of which may not be known for as long as a month from now—then it may not have to cut deals with independents and minor parties to pursue its legislative agenda.
The Teal independents, backed by Climate 200, have held their seats, mostly with increased margins, but voters seem to have decided that the Greens aren’t needed in the lower house, losing the seats of Griffith and Brisbane (where their sitting MP came third) though, as at the time of writing, ahead in their last remaining seat of Ryan against a 5.91 percent swing to Labor.
The party may, however, retain its influence over Labor’s direction if it can hold its 12 Senate seats.
The Teals have been promoted as independent candidates to appeal to affluent, white-collar voters keen for more climate change action, and transparency in government. At the same time, their preferences will often flow to Labor as well.
Meanwhile, the suburban independent Dai Le—a former Liberal candidate—appears to have held her seat of Fowler, which had a 1.1 percent margin, with a 0.3 percent swing.
The Liberal Party, which is now faced with finding a new leader before Parliament resumes, faces the prospect of several terms in the political wilderness unless it can rebuild its structure and platform over the next three years and convince the electorate that it’s a viable alternative government.
