Amid ongoing talks with Israel, Syria’s new Islamist-led government is considering a scenario in which it would relinquish claims to most of the Golan Heights to Israel, in exchange for carving the city of Tripoli and surrounding territory out of Lebanon and making it part of Syria. The development was first reported by Israel’s i24News, which didn’t address the question of how Israel would have any authority to trade another country’s territory.  

Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967’s Six-Day War and annexed it in 1981. In 2019, the Trump administration became the first country to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the 700 square miles of strategically-important land. Six years later, the United States still stands alone in doing so, as Israel’s annexation is widely seen as a violation of international law and the United Nations charter. Following Assad’s collapse, the Israeli army raced into Syria and seized what had been a demilitarized, UN-monitored “buffer zone” under a 1974 ceasefire agreement, and also ventured beyond it. Israel did so despite assurances from the new Syrian government’s assurance that it would honor the 1974 agreement. Other violations of Syrian territory has been part of the Israeli routine for years, with periodic bombings that have continued after the fall of Assad.

Now, the two governments are engaged in what an Israeli official characterizes as “advanced talks” on a bilateral security agreement. According to a source close to President Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria is demanding that Israel part with at least a portion of the Golan Heights, and has thrown two scenarios on the table: 

Scenario 1: Israel would retain strategic areas in the Golan Heights equivalent to one-third of its territory, hand over a third to Syria, and lease another third from Syria for a period of 25 years.

Scenario 2: Israel keeps two-thirds of the Golan Heights, and hands over the remaining third to Syria, with the possibility of its lease. Under this scenario, the Lebanese city of Tripoli, close to the Lebanese-Syrian border, and possibly other Lebanese territories in the north of the country and the Beqaa Valley, would be handed over to Syria.  –i24News.

“There is no such thing as peace for free,” said the Syrian government source, adding some concession by Israel on the Golan Heights is essential to al-Sharaa from the perspective of domestic politics: “Al-Sharaa would likely face significant internal resistance should he fail to [secure the return of some territory].” 

In addition to the port city of Tripoli, Syria is angling to take over surrounding Sunni-dominated Lebanese territory. According to one analysis, here’s how Lebanon’s population breaks down along religious lines: 32% Shia Muslim, 31% Sunni Muslim, 31% Christian and 6% Druze Muslim. However, Tripoli is something on the order of 81% Sunni Muslim. The city and surrounding territory were removed from Syria when the state of Lebanon was formed by France in 1920, following the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Tripoli is Lebanon’s second-largest city with a population of about 229,000, and is home to an important seaport.  

The idea of a swath of Lebanon being carved off and handed over to an extremist government dominated by members of an al-Qaeda offshoot is certain to raise eyebrows — most of all, because Lebanon is not a party to the discussions. While the Lebanese government has yet to issue a statement about the report, Ashraf Rifi, a member of the Lebanese parliament who represents Tripoli, dismissed the idea, telling the state-run National News Agency: 

“Syria is not giving up the Golan, and it is not engaging in any barter. Al-Fayhaa [a union of municipalities that includes Tripoli, Mina and Baddawi] is Lebanese, Lebanese, Lebanese — Tripoli is Lebanese and proud of its identity. The 10,452 square kilometers [of Lebanon] constitute a final homeland for us and all its people. Period.”

We’ll have to see if the State of Israel somehow manages to have the last word on Tripoli’s future.